Good day everyone!hope all of you are happy that tml is a holiday ( for sgreans)! Hari raya haji to all the malay friends :)
Okay, as the NFPR (Non farm pay roll) report was out, the market as usual had quite big movements, but eventually euro problem was still the main concern thus, that's why stock rose back after which (with much lower magnitude of droppage).
Simsci had a broadening bottom over the aug-oct period, and the Trendline was tested and it holds. The recent pull back had to 311 region and later on reclaiming 317 and 324 region to me show bullishness in the fight back,holding above 324 region will led the way to 330 region where i guess major resistance might be around there. Sign of weakness can be observe for simsci from MACD and RSI,but i shall wait for more confirmation.
DJI, to me had been supported by 11630 and it act as a support as of now. This level if you realize also is the 50% fibo line in the daily chart. Thus, to me DJI's bull had not totally died yet. Levels that i am look at of coz will be 11630 to break if i going short, i might short small on monday if it reaches 12040 again since if it breaks down again will confirm a lower high formation, and we might be having a downtrend.
Spot Gold, at 1766-68 region got resisted by its daily 61.8% fibo line,this for now proves as a strong R. I am looking for gold to retest this region to confirm my hypothesis.....
USD basket on hourly chart had trend change to a uptrend but it still has some heavy resistance and difficulties in breaking the 7780 level but first it needs to break its window gap at 7728-7748.I believe that for now 7685 will be the base, once broken, it might not be good to long xxx/usd currency pair.
Euro/usd had caught my attention as it has been hovering around 1.383 its R for daily which also is the 38% fibo line. Around this level, EUR was unable to break above it...entry at 1.385 was a good entry but i was away outside on friday night...ha...damn..but do note that volatilty is there for euro as euro crisis definitely will affect this currency pair very very much! ;) , just take a look at the interest rate change that affects its movement. Do note that the hourly chart formed a bear flag
Saturday, 5 November 2011
Sunday, 30 October 2011
back from Msia...minor updates...before Zzzz
Went over on the weekend to KL for a short trip...was quite fun..but as usual KL is always jam jam and more jam...haha...hope they can improve of them real fast ;) then can attract more tourist haha.but the trip was sweet..hehehe....no charts today,tired...haha
This week update is a little short...
First, SIMSCI, if you have observed, there were some p-taking (profit taking) by the BB on friday early in the morning...once after that i can see that the market went up even higher. This is what i feel..BB throw to let the retalier take it,BB enters again with some funds to push the index higher...at the same time retalier were also buying it up. There goes simsci flying up again...
So do take note of next week, there might be some selling or mayb heavy selling as BB to me are unloading slowly.....levels that i watch will be 338-339 and eventually the 342-344 regions.Breaking of 330.6 should be good indications of BB real intentions.
DJI, with such bullishness in DJI from since...dont know when...it is taking a breather on friday...with not much movements and low volume.If it were to fly again, i will be looking at major resistance of 12400 but first it needs to clear the 12290 level (this is where i will observe also).If the bull is strong 12160 should hold and not break. So for dji is wait and see mode.
SPOT Gold is quite bullish, as you can see if you open out its 1 hr chart, but do take note the second rally wasnt of good strength.Divergence were seen in gold but i wasn't too comfortable with its divergence as it really dont give a good signal to short/buy.1750 need to break to move gold higher. 1730 can be a good spot to long since it had been holding there quite well,as can be seen in 1 hour chart.If you are risk taker, you might wan to long there,up to you.
Crude Oil (dec contract) to me had been in a downtrend, it is moving down.So is it meaning that dji is going to come down any soon?My guess is probably, I will be looking at oil at R of 9416 or even 9520 if it happen to go higher (although i doubted so since it is showing sign of weakening).A downtrendline of oil can be observed which conincide with 9400 region. Do take note of it.
Okay time to Zzzz...nites ;)
This week update is a little short...
First, SIMSCI, if you have observed, there were some p-taking (profit taking) by the BB on friday early in the morning...once after that i can see that the market went up even higher. This is what i feel..BB throw to let the retalier take it,BB enters again with some funds to push the index higher...at the same time retalier were also buying it up. There goes simsci flying up again...
So do take note of next week, there might be some selling or mayb heavy selling as BB to me are unloading slowly.....levels that i watch will be 338-339 and eventually the 342-344 regions.Breaking of 330.6 should be good indications of BB real intentions.
DJI, with such bullishness in DJI from since...dont know when...it is taking a breather on friday...with not much movements and low volume.If it were to fly again, i will be looking at major resistance of 12400 but first it needs to clear the 12290 level (this is where i will observe also).If the bull is strong 12160 should hold and not break. So for dji is wait and see mode.
SPOT Gold is quite bullish, as you can see if you open out its 1 hr chart, but do take note the second rally wasnt of good strength.Divergence were seen in gold but i wasn't too comfortable with its divergence as it really dont give a good signal to short/buy.1750 need to break to move gold higher. 1730 can be a good spot to long since it had been holding there quite well,as can be seen in 1 hour chart.If you are risk taker, you might wan to long there,up to you.
Crude Oil (dec contract) to me had been in a downtrend, it is moving down.So is it meaning that dji is going to come down any soon?My guess is probably, I will be looking at oil at R of 9416 or even 9520 if it happen to go higher (although i doubted so since it is showing sign of weakening).A downtrendline of oil can be observed which conincide with 9400 region. Do take note of it.
Okay time to Zzzz...nites ;)
Thursday, 27 October 2011
tonite no trading for me...maybe...
looking at the bullishness of dji...there isnt much to bull but if chance arise i will bear it...i am looking at it to rally another 100 pts (as of now 515pm it is 12030)...should it show some form of weakening i will short..but dont think is "buy" in fever by retalier will stop so soon...so i will be waiting (sniping mode)
gold, as i can see rallied on EU news as they panic that the problem will not be resolved well as expected.after the news...i saw that gold is coming down from 1728 now 1709 ...so my thinking is it might just pull back and retrace a few more levels since my theory is that dji so bullish ppl will just get out of gold and dump money into the stock market...tonite shall reveal the answer for me. ;)
gold, as i can see rallied on EU news as they panic that the problem will not be resolved well as expected.after the news...i saw that gold is coming down from 1728 now 1709 ...so my thinking is it might just pull back and retrace a few more levels since my theory is that dji so bullish ppl will just get out of gold and dump money into the stock market...tonite shall reveal the answer for me. ;)
Wednesday, 26 October 2011
dont believe in news...they are just BS
just take a look at a few hours back...2 hours? news from ________ source named that stock rose on eu summit due to optimism...now just moment ago...11pm, they say stock lose ground become shaky coz of EU ...why?BB just manipulating the news for ppl to long or short...just as you want to short on news...a big rebound came your way and you lose money...why?because those big boys had already sell down big time before you enter....lolz....
DJI
last week i mentioned that 11940 was the resistance to watch..indeed dji came down at that level after testing it a couple of times...nice...
then i didnt get in as i was doing something else...haa...but was lucky to get into oil which started to tumble after reaching is fibo ext of 9420 region...sweet...
as of now...dji futures climbed almost 100 pts...
i be looking at 11820 and 11850 to act as resistance and come down if bear should be dominanting.I will short at any weakness and turn
.so far ...the bull is leading the way.......we shall wait...and snipe and run awwwway =)
last week i mentioned that 11940 was the resistance to watch..indeed dji came down at that level after testing it a couple of times...nice...
then i didnt get in as i was doing something else...haa...but was lucky to get into oil which started to tumble after reaching is fibo ext of 9420 region...sweet...
as of now...dji futures climbed almost 100 pts...
i be looking at 11820 and 11850 to act as resistance and come down if bear should be dominanting.I will short at any weakness and turn
.so far ...the bull is leading the way.......we shall wait...and snipe and run awwwway =)
Sunday, 23 October 2011
weekly chart posting for 24-28 Oct 2011
Hi everyone,
First of all gold indeed dropped off its pattern, from what i saw last week, anyway it seems like a rising wedge which broke its pattern rather than a ascending triangle. Anyway with that gold had found base at 1600-1610 and refuse to go lower instead it shoot up. Gold to me might be testing 1650,1660 fibo retracement lines again, if bullish (happens if dji rally higher) will break up and we shall look at fibo extension lines instead. Recently i have also observed a trend, take a look at your gold and dji movement, i realise that after a plunge of gold (more than or about $70) and when gold starts to bounce back with divergence..... Be ready to see a big pull up by dji. that's what I saw last week and compared with subsequent weeks ago data.
Nonethless a big rally by DJI and it broke the short term downtrend line!wow...killed a lot shortist i think (now walking around without underwear)... It has been too volatile to trade and it is basically trading with bad and good news so i didnt really traded last week and also due to loads of work to be done at work~ :(
I be watching dji closely as it is approaching 11885 (38% fibo) levels and 11940 region, which is the support turn resistance. I also noticed that the price action in dji had broke a falling wedge. The pattern is more of a bullish strength pattern, thus be careful. I guess dji shd be halt briefly by 12000. We shall see.
Next looking locally sti blue chip, sti should be strong if it were able to stay about 310-11 range but it will face first a strong resistance at 320 when 314 were broken.313 is a 50% fibo which in my opinion is safe to enter a long if it were to be retested and stop loss can be placed at 309-08.
Last, on the list is oil. Oil had retraced from the high and hit the 61.8% fibo line and rise up on divergence of price and indicators (hourly chart). I will look at 8900 as it was a recent consolidation zone.Take note of the Uptrendline of crude oil might resist the up movement of crude oil in recent period.
First of all gold indeed dropped off its pattern, from what i saw last week, anyway it seems like a rising wedge which broke its pattern rather than a ascending triangle. Anyway with that gold had found base at 1600-1610 and refuse to go lower instead it shoot up. Gold to me might be testing 1650,1660 fibo retracement lines again, if bullish (happens if dji rally higher) will break up and we shall look at fibo extension lines instead. Recently i have also observed a trend, take a look at your gold and dji movement, i realise that after a plunge of gold (more than or about $70) and when gold starts to bounce back with divergence..... Be ready to see a big pull up by dji. that's what I saw last week and compared with subsequent weeks ago data.
Nonethless a big rally by DJI and it broke the short term downtrend line!wow...killed a lot shortist i think (now walking around without underwear)... It has been too volatile to trade and it is basically trading with bad and good news so i didnt really traded last week and also due to loads of work to be done at work~ :(
I be watching dji closely as it is approaching 11885 (38% fibo) levels and 11940 region, which is the support turn resistance. I also noticed that the price action in dji had broke a falling wedge. The pattern is more of a bullish strength pattern, thus be careful. I guess dji shd be halt briefly by 12000. We shall see.
Sunday, 16 October 2011
weekly updates/Market outlook
Hi everyone,
Last week was a badbad week for shortist (i am one of them). Because after every small pull back the market just went higher!and higher......and higher.... Well, that is how the market works...now it is making all the bears hiding and you still remember the days before oct?where the bears were out there roaring?HAHA...Let's see how long the bull can run. Here are some of my market outlooks for next week.
Okay, starting with SIMSCI,SIMSCI had a relatively weak and uncertain two days on thurs and friday. But i would say that for now 312 is a resistance turns support. With this support and strong rally in DJI, i am expecting SIMSCI to rally to 320-322 region before facing strong headwinds to rise further. Then I might look for weakness from the double tops which is formed. Thus I wont short or long unless i see a clear signal from the chart. Putting on a long position to me is very risky and the Risk and reward ratio (RRR) isn't good for me.
Next we can look at how is the DJI doing,as mentioned it rallied 166 on friday backed by a string of good news . This bull is unusually STRONG. I am rather worried about this rally as it seems getting unstable and out of control.HAHA. I saw the bull clearing resistance of 11540 as subsequently the recent high of 11620. So clearly bull is still strong. But nonetheless I am looking at certain levels, e.g. 11720 and eventually 11880. If you are daring enough a pull back to 11540 or 11434 region should warrant a long if you are still bullish about this current rally to go even higher.
I been watching the USD basket which tracks the euro,aud,can,swiss franc and yen. It is still going even LOWER and lower....but i do see some divergence in the USD basket, but a word of caution it is still falling inside the downtrend line. But I had noticed few levels of consolidation,7718-7733 and 7780-7795. I am looking at a third consolidation whereby some strong movements of the USD basket can be observed.
I shall blog on something which I have seen for the past few days and still observing, that is gold! Looking at the chart of gold, I do see a so call ascending triangle. Although the ascending triangle is a trend continuation trend, I am observing it in gold. But using this formation I see that gold, had tried to form 2 ascending triangle (both of different gradients as can be seen with the red and the black lines from $1530 region. The first formation break down (from the black line) and that is a failed triangle as it fails to move above $1680. But after which gold price went up steadily retesting 1680 a couple of times. This prove to be a very strong Resistance. And note that prices of gold had been ranging between 1660-1680 the last few days.I am looking at this level (1680)to break conviencingly with target price of $1725. If it fails gold might just get lower.
I am having two thoughts for gold. Gold had been moving in sync ( in a inverse manner) with USD basket. Most of time that is the case since people uses USD to buy GOLD. With my analysis on the USD , if it were to finish consolidation and move higher, I will short gold if weakness were to appear in gold. So far weakness hasn't been observed for gold YET.
Last week was a badbad week for shortist (i am one of them). Because after every small pull back the market just went higher!and higher......and higher.... Well, that is how the market works...now it is making all the bears hiding and you still remember the days before oct?where the bears were out there roaring?HAHA...Let's see how long the bull can run. Here are some of my market outlooks for next week.
Okay, starting with SIMSCI,SIMSCI had a relatively weak and uncertain two days on thurs and friday. But i would say that for now 312 is a resistance turns support. With this support and strong rally in DJI, i am expecting SIMSCI to rally to 320-322 region before facing strong headwinds to rise further. Then I might look for weakness from the double tops which is formed. Thus I wont short or long unless i see a clear signal from the chart. Putting on a long position to me is very risky and the Risk and reward ratio (RRR) isn't good for me.
Next we can look at how is the DJI doing,as mentioned it rallied 166 on friday backed by a string of good news . This bull is unusually STRONG. I am rather worried about this rally as it seems getting unstable and out of control.HAHA. I saw the bull clearing resistance of 11540 as subsequently the recent high of 11620. So clearly bull is still strong. But nonetheless I am looking at certain levels, e.g. 11720 and eventually 11880. If you are daring enough a pull back to 11540 or 11434 region should warrant a long if you are still bullish about this current rally to go even higher.
I been watching the USD basket which tracks the euro,aud,can,swiss franc and yen. It is still going even LOWER and lower....but i do see some divergence in the USD basket, but a word of caution it is still falling inside the downtrend line. But I had noticed few levels of consolidation,7718-7733 and 7780-7795. I am looking at a third consolidation whereby some strong movements of the USD basket can be observed.
I shall blog on something which I have seen for the past few days and still observing, that is gold! Looking at the chart of gold, I do see a so call ascending triangle. Although the ascending triangle is a trend continuation trend, I am observing it in gold. But using this formation I see that gold, had tried to form 2 ascending triangle (both of different gradients as can be seen with the red and the black lines from $1530 region. The first formation break down (from the black line) and that is a failed triangle as it fails to move above $1680. But after which gold price went up steadily retesting 1680 a couple of times. This prove to be a very strong Resistance. And note that prices of gold had been ranging between 1660-1680 the last few days.I am looking at this level (1680)to break conviencingly with target price of $1725. If it fails gold might just get lower.
I am having two thoughts for gold. Gold had been moving in sync ( in a inverse manner) with USD basket. Most of time that is the case since people uses USD to buy GOLD. With my analysis on the USD , if it were to finish consolidation and move higher, I will short gold if weakness were to appear in gold. So far weakness hasn't been observed for gold YET.
Sunday, 9 October 2011
Week forecast for 101011-141011
Today i would like to share with everyone what's my view about the upcoming week!well, as we all know this monday is columbus day for US but trading is as usual...except for the closing of the bond markets.Nonetheless the DJI is still ticking! ;)
On friday we saw that moody (really making people moodyzzz...) double downgraded two of the illness plauged countries in europe....so...the bear is coming in play again, which you can see a rallied in dji become a bearish -20 pts.
For me i am rather bearish about the market, first they have yet to break the downtrend and form a higher low or such and all markets are still in the downtrend channel.
Okay to start with I am looking at simsci, it has been quite a poor indices as compared to hsi and other asian stock market,it only rallied about 5%. Nontheless a good 1,but we saw a sell down in the friday afternoon and on friday nite it closes at about 301. I will watch for 300 as the support and if it breaks 297 should be next.
I am looking at dji to break 11280 and stay higher,if broke, it might test 11330 and 11480.downtrend channel still holds from its daily chart,hourly chart had shown that it broke the downtrend channel but resistance might soon be met at 11280
For gold, it has shown weakness at around 1658-1668 region, it had come down quite substatially and from the 1hr and 15 min chart, any rally towards 1660 region with little strength is a good indication for shorting gold.
I am also looking at aud which had broke the 0.98 (relatively strong R),momentarily, and it went back down to 0.977 region. I am looking at 0.9718 as a support which should it break there should be more downside of aud since i saw a strong reversal of usd basket near the 20dma.let's see
On friday we saw that moody (really making people moodyzzz...) double downgraded two of the illness plauged countries in europe....so...the bear is coming in play again, which you can see a rallied in dji become a bearish -20 pts.
For me i am rather bearish about the market, first they have yet to break the downtrend and form a higher low or such and all markets are still in the downtrend channel.
Okay to start with I am looking at simsci, it has been quite a poor indices as compared to hsi and other asian stock market,it only rallied about 5%. Nontheless a good 1,but we saw a sell down in the friday afternoon and on friday nite it closes at about 301. I will watch for 300 as the support and if it breaks 297 should be next.
I am looking at dji to break 11280 and stay higher,if broke, it might test 11330 and 11480.downtrend channel still holds from its daily chart,hourly chart had shown that it broke the downtrend channel but resistance might soon be met at 11280
For gold, it has shown weakness at around 1658-1668 region, it had come down quite substatially and from the 1hr and 15 min chart, any rally towards 1660 region with little strength is a good indication for shorting gold.
I am also looking at aud which had broke the 0.98 (relatively strong R),momentarily, and it went back down to 0.977 region. I am looking at 0.9718 as a support which should it break there should be more downside of aud since i saw a strong reversal of usd basket near the 20dma.let's see
Friday, 7 October 2011
Got purged by the big boys
last night dji futures rallied almost 120 pts but after the market open, the rally dies off and eventually closed with -20 pts down. I went short on both aud and dji thinking that the nonfarm payroll data will be AGAIN Sh**. But i was wrong!It went up 9% and thus at 1-2 mins a last flow of cash went into dji and indices and i believe other indices also. So I got stopped out for both aud and dji. Painful but I learnt.
After which i studied the chart and it was telling me quite obviously that big boys are consolidating at 5pm-8pm (SIN time), they buy and short wihthin this range of pts in dji. After which they accumlate alot ammo from this few cycles, they push the index up all the way....
slowly i observe the market , it creeps down slowly....that is the point where big boys start to unload..unload and unload..to who?the public!they buy on news and hoping it might close with a +200 like the previous day. Who knows, the rally came down with a sad note *-20 pts for dji*
Looking at your chart "deeper" and having experience gained really means a lot. This is where i am still sharpening my skills in.
After which i studied the chart and it was telling me quite obviously that big boys are consolidating at 5pm-8pm (SIN time), they buy and short wihthin this range of pts in dji. After which they accumlate alot ammo from this few cycles, they push the index up all the way....
slowly i observe the market , it creeps down slowly....that is the point where big boys start to unload..unload and unload..to who?the public!they buy on news and hoping it might close with a +200 like the previous day. Who knows, the rally came down with a sad note *-20 pts for dji*
Looking at your chart "deeper" and having experience gained really means a lot. This is where i am still sharpening my skills in.
Hi all
This is the first post of my blog and as the title of my blog implies i am going to blog on trading. For me I am a novice trader and nothing much. I would also like to share my thoughts of the market and training myself to see how the big boy act and react accordingly with them (though sometimes u are just not that fast enough). LOL.
Anyway my postings of charts will be on dji,sti,oil,gold and mayb sometimes aud and usd basket. some how i really feel that these medium are interelated and I tend to trade according to their relationship,but of coz the most important part is to trade on what u see on the CHART and not too relying of the fact that these chart are related,meaning if usd basket up, short dji?not really!
Nevertheless, I will blog normally on a sunday and share my view of the market in the up coming week.So stay tune!Thank you and hope you all will like my blog :)
Anyway my postings of charts will be on dji,sti,oil,gold and mayb sometimes aud and usd basket. some how i really feel that these medium are interelated and I tend to trade according to their relationship,but of coz the most important part is to trade on what u see on the CHART and not too relying of the fact that these chart are related,meaning if usd basket up, short dji?not really!
Nevertheless, I will blog normally on a sunday and share my view of the market in the up coming week.So stay tune!Thank you and hope you all will like my blog :)
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