DJI

Just a quick view on the DJI, two days of break for Dji and its followers..but what has so far been happening might be worth taking a look. The market might go sleeping again tml. Haha..no one knows what Miss sandy can do to Mr Dji.Maybe sandy had made Mr Dji so "tired" that he don't want to work already LOL  :P

Okay, from my analysis of the 4 hourly chart, I have observed a corrective mode of a 5 - 3 -5 wave.Of which as you can see from the chart, both the 5 and 3 were completed. The next 5 wave down is in progress, to me the dji some how stopped at 13000 level which is a strong support + physco support. More over the 1.618 extension of the prior up leg( of 13275 - 13589) is somewhere at 13080. This leg up if fufilled will be a wave 4 and i am expecting it turn at 13296 or 13226 as these are the common retracement level for wave 4. A upmove will be likely as both indicators are pointing towards divergence, which increase the prob of a upward movement soon.Alternatively dji may also head further downwards to 12767 which is its 2.618 extension since 1.618 is already taken out. But if wave 4 ends at 13296 as mentioned before, then target of this downside will be 12900 (if w5=w1) and 12815 (if w5=1.618w4). Also , if wave 4 ends at 13226 target of wave 5 will be 12748 (if w5=1.618w4). Do take note of these levels :)  Right now i will watch and see to go short if chances arise.

GOLD

Gold can be quite a very easy drawn EW on chart and the behavior seems to have very good corrleationship with EW.

Look at  the chart and it has formed a strong wave 1 to wave 3 since its up wave from end of july till it reached its peak at 1796  recently. Let's look at it with the chart as shown above. The completed wave 3 is actually forming a wave 4 which I believe is about to have its leg ending at either the 1715 (38.2%) level or the 1693 (50%). Indicators on the 4 hrs is still showing a divergence. Look for any time factor such as fibo/lucas number on the chart and coupled with a bullish candle stick this might prove a good turning point at either 38.2 or 50% level. But note that this wave five might be the last up wave for gold before having some major correction to the gold price movements.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD

Last time i was saying that AUDUSD might be retesting back its 1.0351 level which in this case it was slammed down and go under and below this level without any confirmation of turning. Let's look at the details and 1 by 1 we decipher the data being put forward by the chart. Let's GO!

Overall in the daily chart few things can be said,let's split them to four separate sections, first

Resistance and Support,

R1=1.0376, R2=1.0462

S1=1.0228, S2=1.0185

Wave form: A E wave as depicted in this chart is still in progress and it seems to be forming a lower high in this progression.

Indicators: Indicators are both showing divergences in MACD and RSI, which means that this pair is bearish bias.

Time and price factor: A critical time bar at 60 days from the top at the part where I labelled in red 'D' confluence with a 29 days from prior top on 14 sep 12. This is indeed a turning point down. As both numbers were either a lucas or fibo number.

Let's take a closer look at the wave internal build up on a 4hr chart as the daily chart is not very visible.

As mentioned 1.0353(1.618 of wave 2 was back tested and broke down. Again let's systematically decipher the data provided.

Wave form: A valid 5 wave up should still be valid as long as 1.02800,which is the top of wave 1, is not violated.

Indicators: No bearish/bullish divergence yet to be observed in both MACD and RSI.

Time and price factor: A time point at 60-61 time bar from bottom of 8 oct and 11-12 time bar from prior top will be taking place at 15:00 of 22 oct. Do take note of any favorable bullish candle for the candle to turn up to complete its wave 5 of larger degree wave 3. This time factor might also confluence with 1.0313 which is 61.8% of wave 3.

AUDUSD

This chart is a 4 hr chart and from this time frame in the chart, one should be able to identify the 5,3,5 pattern (a corrective pattern) found in AUDUSD.Let zoom in from day 9 oct til current. The wave movement was a up wave with identified 1,2 and 3rd wave which is in progress..As shown wave 3 can be 1.618 or 2.618 of wave 2. And since that 1.618 (1.0353) had just been cleared, the pair now tries to retest that 1.618 level. If rebounded up, we can see 2.618 level be reached which is at 1.0443 level. If you would like a short ride of about 90 pips , one can enter at 1.0353 with confirmation candle stick pattern.

EURUSD Pair update

The pair is bullish but i think its with some hidden agenda..well..let's go back to the chart. As of last weekend, I was quite bearish about EURUSD if it hits the descending triangle at 1.30 trendline. But look at the BIG fat green candle, it was too bullish to initiate any short position. Moving on on the daily chart, there might be a formation of wave 5 in this up leg. This wave 5 might end somewhere 1.3195 to 1.3220. These levels are determined as Wave 5 is normally equal to wave 1.The time point to note now is at 23 oct which is 76 days from the start of this up leg on 25 jul and it is also 29 d from the peak at 17 sep. This time point if conincide with the price level as mentioned should be a good short entry. Note that indicator are also setting up a bearish divergences.

Should start blogging after v long break

Hi Everyone...I am back to blogging on my trading...been busy with my personal stuffs and also at the same time reading up and brushing up on my trading skills in closed doors so i can produce much more better views with all of you! :) Above all, we trade to win and not trade to trade :P

Today I will share two charts which i have intention to trade this coming weeks, the DJI and EURUSD pair.

EURUSD

 Summary: Bearish Bias

EURUSD should be a much clearer trend than the DJI which i will cover later.

Resistances are at 1.3058 and 1.3144 (also 50% retracement level of fibo W3)

Supports are at 1.2828 and 1.2674

This pair as u can see is in the wave 4 (complex since Wave 2 is simple, alternation rule) of the fully extened wave 3 (note that it is a down trend). Corrective A move is on the way and it looks like eurusd is forming a desending triangle which is bearish. But on a cationary notes, break out at either sides of triangle will requires confirmation. But using EW rules, if this assignment of the wave is right 1.3196 should not be broken (UP) since wave 4 dont overlap wave 1.Monday/ tuesday might be a good entry point - for short - since it is 22 days (fibo number) from top of 1.3144 and 7 days (lucas number) from prior top. This might be a good entry day if price hit upper trend line and come down with good confirmation candle on the next day e.g. bearish engulf, harami or etc.

Looking at 4 hr chart also tells u the same story with signal already showing at 123 time bar (from top). This can be seen on the chart and should be self explanatory.



DJI

 Summary: Bearish Bias

DJI is still hovering around the 13300 support which is a support that was formed from prior resistance.  A double top with neckline at 13410,If this double top is valid, the target point will be at 13160.

Currently,

 2 levels of resistances are at 13410 and 13660.
Note: 13410, double top neckline. and 13660 a all time high.

2 level of supports are at 13280 and 12800.
Note: If one have noticed the pattern is very similar to that of mar-apr 2012. currently, i will not do any shorting anymore until further confirmation can be seen from the break down of 13280 region which might be a strong support as for now.

In perspective of Eilliot wave, wave formed as of now is forming a diagonal wedge which might just have ended its E wave up. With the double top + diagonal wedge with ending E wave and a break out of lower trendline, this could be trouble for long-ist...With confirmation of support break at 13280 convincingly I will short with conviction.HAHA. Let's see.

In terms of indicator, both MACD and RSI were in divergence with price movement of the dow.


Meanwhile happy weekend to all and cheers to happy trading! =)