Thursday, 29 November 2012
USD index relating EURUSD
What a smoke screen created by the Big hands... last night we saw a sharp dump and push action on EURUSD, thought it went my way (by going down) but next morning the pair reversed up stronger. So,the 8000 level in usd index cant be held, and if we see further upside in EURUSD We shall focus on the next probable level on USD index which is the 7972 (1.618 extension of wave 4). From there we shall see some turning once again in EURUSD....
Gold 291112
With gold big plunge last nite,but shortly after there was a rebound up due to strong rally from the indices and plunge in the USD index. So, who says when equities down gold will go down?I dont think so!And if you were observing the market close enough, movements of gold and equities were lately directly correlated.
Gold, had been behaving quite inline with the wave count, we saw 1706 was the lowest point for last night which it coincide with the 61.8% of the prior wave B. Right after it stage a strong rebound to go as high as 1725 (as of writing)...Look at how these fibo lines act as temp stoppage points for gold...beautiful...This pullback i am looking at 1730 and 1736 (50 and 61.8% of wave 1) before a turn will commence to finish this Wave 2 up. Overall the trend to me is still a five wave down Wave C. We shall watch closely...how these fibo points act as resistance or support..
Gold, had been behaving quite inline with the wave count, we saw 1706 was the lowest point for last night which it coincide with the 61.8% of the prior wave B. Right after it stage a strong rebound to go as high as 1725 (as of writing)...Look at how these fibo lines act as temp stoppage points for gold...beautiful...This pullback i am looking at 1730 and 1736 (50 and 61.8% of wave 1) before a turn will commence to finish this Wave 2 up. Overall the trend to me is still a five wave down Wave C. We shall watch closely...how these fibo points act as resistance or support..
EURUSD update on another pespective 291112
We can take a look at the Dollar index while playing main currency pair that is tied to the USD, namely swiss franc, yen,eur etc.....On that note i will share with you people what i saw from the dollar index.
look at the right hand side of the chart where I named a 5 wave down from 1-A ,2-A and so on..each of the wave coincide nicely to the retracement or extension of each wave count. Thus, we can see that now we are moving into wave 5-A which we might see target of this wave 5 reaching 7972 which is the 1.618 extension of wave 4. But, we can also see a truncation happening, if the dollar index were to rebound from the 8007 price point (end point of wave 3). These are the two scenerios that might happen. Of coz a drop to 7972 will see eurusd pair rally further up above 1.30 as of now, or if 8007 holds, we will see 1.30 region being acting as a resistance again for the eurusd pair.. You can pull out any chart related to dollar index and label the wave count,if it go inline with what you seen on the dollar index chart..it might be a good signal for short/long.
.once again happy trading ;)
look at the right hand side of the chart where I named a 5 wave down from 1-A ,2-A and so on..each of the wave coincide nicely to the retracement or extension of each wave count. Thus, we can see that now we are moving into wave 5-A which we might see target of this wave 5 reaching 7972 which is the 1.618 extension of wave 4. But, we can also see a truncation happening, if the dollar index were to rebound from the 8007 price point (end point of wave 3). These are the two scenerios that might happen. Of coz a drop to 7972 will see eurusd pair rally further up above 1.30 as of now, or if 8007 holds, we will see 1.30 region being acting as a resistance again for the eurusd pair.. You can pull out any chart related to dollar index and label the wave count,if it go inline with what you seen on the dollar index chart..it might be a good signal for short/long.
.once again happy trading ;)
Wednesday, 28 November 2012
spectacle dropped rally
Big hands know i published bearish chart...want to prove me wrong...hahaha...okay...i keep quiet ...for the moment..hahaha...spectacular rally +100+ woohoo...but still within the range..short on rally?let's c
DJI short updates 281112
For those whom frequent my blog, thank you. And for those whom are new, you might need to refer to my previous entries to understand. Since my analysis on DJI, I have mentioned some of the possible turning point for it...at 12400-500 region and now the 12870 and 12970 region. not very spot on but is realy somewhere there which you can take up short position at, i bet those who shorted at 12970 were happy now. Looking at the wave count I am looking at a formation of a wave 5 which in this case might see it reaching 12120 (1.618 ext of wave 4) as its eventual target . But of coz nothing is for sure. To play safe, if you were already in short you might wan to pick up money along the way (at major support or fibo ratios as drawn here) and at the same time add positions at each pull back up since overall direction is a downward one. Happy trading!
Gold 281112
Tuesday, 27 November 2012
eurusd
as mentioned the pair fell and it might fall even lower judging from the way it is now...gold had also fallen off its 1750 resistance in my last posting...although some corrections of the Wave count needs to b done for gold overall I still see a wave c coming
Monday, 26 November 2012
EURUSD 261112
Watch the turning point that cant push higher from the red trendline (also as drawn previously http://tradingsniper1shot1kill.blogspot.sg/2012/11/blog-post.html) which I have drawn....beware...near to 61.8% retracement too...wait to short! :)
* Just to add on, if you were on the daily chart, you will see that the days count from 17 sept 12 high is a 61 day till date (26/11/12). Beware and this time factor coincide near to the 61.8% retracement.....get ready for some actions....as can see the candle doesnt look anymore decisive in the 4hr chart.
Monday, 19 November 2012
dji updates 201112
judging at the spectacular rally last night the dji rallied and invalid the alternate wave count I made...thus in a more macroperspective on the daily chart I mention we shall now look for any reversal at 12880 and 12970 region cheers ..as speculated this turn will be fast n furious
Sunday, 18 November 2012
AUDUSD 181112
Hi Evian,
Thanks for your comment and this is a post dedicated for you on AUDUSD. This post can also be read by those whom are interested or trade on this pair. I am trading still on AUDUSD but just that I didnt do any posting for it.First of all let's look at the daily chart as show below:
The wedge which is for wave B is already completed at point E as shown here. But something you might want to take note is that of the wave E end point did not really hit the upper trendline of the wedge.So what does that tells you?It might signal that the upwave is losing momentum drastically and this C wave down will be very drastic. (Btw if you were to look at my Gold chart posting today, you will notice Gold and AUDUSD is going into the same wave ,which is wave C. It is not called a commodity currency for no reason. :) ). I feel that the wave C will eventually hit 0.9944 as its primary target. And of cause there will be up and downs where you should look into to short ( since this trend is a down trend). This is as much as I would want to say about AUDUSD, as for when to initate your trade, look into the wave internals that will be formed along the way. Happy trading! ;)
By the way if you look into the 4 hr chart, do look for the retest of the lower trend line of this wedge for good short entry if this line is meant to be tested again.
Thanks for your comment and this is a post dedicated for you on AUDUSD. This post can also be read by those whom are interested or trade on this pair. I am trading still on AUDUSD but just that I didnt do any posting for it.First of all let's look at the daily chart as show below:
By the way if you look into the 4 hr chart, do look for the retest of the lower trend line of this wedge for good short entry if this line is meant to be tested again.
DJI updates181112
DJI 181112
DJI on the daily had dropped quite a bit and had stopped nicely at the 2.618 level (of 13000-13300 wave C-2). And this level at 12490 was held and a strong rebound was seen on Friday. With that, one should expect the rebound to kick in and a rally to about 12880 or 12979 (0.5 and 0.618 of 13300 to 12460 wave down). But on a closer examination of the internals of wave using 4 hr chart. One can see two wave counts which i proposed as shown below, in blue and red.
The light blue wave count had a completed five wave count ,but the problem is that Wave 3 is the shortest!And that is a violation of the EW principles. Thus, it should be discarded. The one is red showed that the wave 3 is formed and a wave 4 will be in progress. In this case wave 4 should never exceed 12730 for it to be valid.
Looking at this, i have a conclusion. DJI will have a rally to 12680 -12730 and a wave 5 down will continue to complete the C-3 which is shown on the daily chart. This Wave 5 might end at the same point of 12490 which we call it a truncation or exceed the 2.618 level.
DJI on the daily had dropped quite a bit and had stopped nicely at the 2.618 level (of 13000-13300 wave C-2). And this level at 12490 was held and a strong rebound was seen on Friday. With that, one should expect the rebound to kick in and a rally to about 12880 or 12979 (0.5 and 0.618 of 13300 to 12460 wave down). But on a closer examination of the internals of wave using 4 hr chart. One can see two wave counts which i proposed as shown below, in blue and red.
Looking at this, i have a conclusion. DJI will have a rally to 12680 -12730 and a wave 5 down will continue to complete the C-3 which is shown on the daily chart. This Wave 5 might end at the same point of 12490 which we call it a truncation or exceed the 2.618 level.
Gold updates 181112
Gold 181112
As mentioned in my last post, i was mentioning to go short on gold on two occasion, 1735 and 1750. I went on saying that if at this point gold turns, it will be the beginning of wave C down which if you are a EW person you will know that it is the most drastic wave to be prepared for. Right now price is about 1714. More downside is to come and I am targeting this wave to hit a low of 1631 where if you have a chart,pull to the left and, you should see that it is a good resistance turned support area. Cheers to those who shorted (*including myself*) =)
As mentioned in my last post, i was mentioning to go short on gold on two occasion, 1735 and 1750. I went on saying that if at this point gold turns, it will be the beginning of wave C down which if you are a EW person you will know that it is the most drastic wave to be prepared for. Right now price is about 1714. More downside is to come and I am targeting this wave to hit a low of 1631 where if you have a chart,pull to the left and, you should see that it is a good resistance turned support area. Cheers to those who shorted (*including myself*) =)
EURUSD Updates 181112
EURUSD Updates
As of last EURUSD posting, i have mentioned that EURUSD had hit a temp bottom at 1.2665 which coincide with the 2.618 (of 1.3022 - 1.2886, Wave 4 up in this case). As such, wedge was broke out as mentioned. And as of last friday's trading , a higher low was formed. This might propel the pair to a high of 1.2888 (0.618 of 1.3023-1.2665) ,but of coz a few hurdle needs to be cleared before reaching this target.
But of coz this is a wave B up, eventual target i am looking at is between 1.29 -1.2958 (0.5 - 0.618 of this five wave down shown).
As of last EURUSD posting, i have mentioned that EURUSD had hit a temp bottom at 1.2665 which coincide with the 2.618 (of 1.3022 - 1.2886, Wave 4 up in this case). As such, wedge was broke out as mentioned. And as of last friday's trading , a higher low was formed. This might propel the pair to a high of 1.2888 (0.618 of 1.3023-1.2665) ,but of coz a few hurdle needs to be cleared before reaching this target.
But of coz this is a wave B up, eventual target i am looking at is between 1.29 -1.2958 (0.5 - 0.618 of this five wave down shown).
Thursday, 15 November 2012
enjoy my weekend hope same for u all
no trading post for today coz it's Tgif! hoped that from my cal u all have profited! :) happy trading!here are just some pictures to share with you all which i took from Legoland Malaysia! :D
Monday, 12 November 2012
EURUSD 12Nov12
EURUSD 12Nov12
Look for entry at after 5th wave (5-5-A) of this diagonal triangle. The end point is around 1.2665, once the pair breaks out of the upper trendline of the diagonal triangle, a long entry can be initiated for a relief rally in EURUSD. Target to see is 1.288.
Look for entry at after 5th wave (5-5-A) of this diagonal triangle. The end point is around 1.2665, once the pair breaks out of the upper trendline of the diagonal triangle, a long entry can be initiated for a relief rally in EURUSD. Target to see is 1.288.
Friday, 9 November 2012
DJI 121112 UPDATES
DJI 121112
Spectacular plunge observed on the dji. I was always bearish on this counter no doubt. Now look at it. I had breached the 13000 level which I have mentioned and dropped more. Let's look at when we can drain some money from this hard and fast correction.Levels as I mentioned were tested and down down jones goes..Haha. As mentioned 13290 was a very clear support turned resistance which was tested multiple times last week before it gives the Big boys the go ahead to plunge the market (tat's what i feel) ;)
Okay a few things to note, this is a diagonal triangle and a completed A-E waves were formed. Thus, in fact a break down from the lower trendline spell trouble for DJI. Enough of the talk and let's go back to the fundamentals.
Resistance and support:
R1=13000
R2=13290
S1= 12826 (as now DJI still lingering over that region)
S2= 13560
Waveform: This wave down is considered a Wave C and it should consist five wave down I have labeled them as C-1,C2 and C3. I am expecting C3 to stop at either 50% (12820) or at 61.8%(12560) region. This will initiate a relief rally up to 13000. And from there this support turned resistance should be stopping further up move and turn the market further downwards towards 12000 which is my expected target for wave 5 of this wave C correction.From what i see on last friday's market actions, people are clueless what to do thus the doji-like candle which was formed. Let's c how Monday goes. If 13000 is retested again. It will be a good target to short with conviction!Cheers!
Indicator:No divergence seen as of yet.
Spectacular plunge observed on the dji. I was always bearish on this counter no doubt. Now look at it. I had breached the 13000 level which I have mentioned and dropped more. Let's look at when we can drain some money from this hard and fast correction.Levels as I mentioned were tested and down down jones goes..Haha. As mentioned 13290 was a very clear support turned resistance which was tested multiple times last week before it gives the Big boys the go ahead to plunge the market (tat's what i feel) ;)
Okay a few things to note, this is a diagonal triangle and a completed A-E waves were formed. Thus, in fact a break down from the lower trendline spell trouble for DJI. Enough of the talk and let's go back to the fundamentals.
Resistance and support:
R1=13000
R2=13290
S1= 12826 (as now DJI still lingering over that region)
S2= 13560
Waveform: This wave down is considered a Wave C and it should consist five wave down I have labeled them as C-1,C2 and C3. I am expecting C3 to stop at either 50% (12820) or at 61.8%(12560) region. This will initiate a relief rally up to 13000. And from there this support turned resistance should be stopping further up move and turn the market further downwards towards 12000 which is my expected target for wave 5 of this wave C correction.From what i see on last friday's market actions, people are clueless what to do thus the doji-like candle which was formed. Let's c how Monday goes. If 13000 is retested again. It will be a good target to short with conviction!Cheers!
Indicator:No divergence seen as of yet.
Sunday, 4 November 2012
04 Nov 12 - Gold gold Go away come again another day..soon..it will rebound
Gold XAUUSD
To cut it short, I think this chart is very nicely "created" for Elliottians to analyze. To me most of the extensions and retracements are well inline with Elliott wave principles.
XAUUSD - Daily
Resistance and Support:
R1=1720
R2=1746
S1=1667
S2=1625
Waveform: Wave 5 of Wave A is in progression and might be ending at 1667 (61.8% of greater degree wave 1) region. Watch for turn.
Indicators: The MACD is still below the zeroline and RSI is also still sloping downwards.
XAUUSD - 4Hrs
But if you were to look closer on the 4 hr chart and look at the internals of the five wave down Wave A . It is not that simple.
Wave form: In this 4 hour chart, we can see that the 161.8% of subwave 4 (of larger degree Wave A) has just been tested and price might hover around this region. If broken down, we will see more selling to reach 1652 which is 261.8% of subwave 4.
These levels will be level which i will look into and wait for reversal for entry on the long side.
To cut it short, I think this chart is very nicely "created" for Elliottians to analyze. To me most of the extensions and retracements are well inline with Elliott wave principles.
XAUUSD - Daily
Resistance and Support:
R1=1720
R2=1746
S1=1667
S2=1625
Waveform: Wave 5 of Wave A is in progression and might be ending at 1667 (61.8% of greater degree wave 1) region. Watch for turn.
Indicators: The MACD is still below the zeroline and RSI is also still sloping downwards.
XAUUSD - 4Hrs
But if you were to look closer on the 4 hr chart and look at the internals of the five wave down Wave A . It is not that simple.
Wave form: In this 4 hour chart, we can see that the 161.8% of subwave 4 (of larger degree Wave A) has just been tested and price might hover around this region. If broken down, we will see more selling to reach 1652 which is 261.8% of subwave 4.
These levels will be level which i will look into and wait for reversal for entry on the long side.
DJI 04Nov12
Resistance and support
R1= 13300-13360
R2=13560
S1=13060
S2=12820
To me, if you have shorted, look at 13000 to break and go lower.
Waveform: As of friday, the down wave have already captured the 38.6% of the diagonal triangle (wave 5 up since June 2012).
Wave B is currently in progression and i would like to see the target of 13360 to be reached before a U turn to form another 5 wave down Wave C.
Right now i dont think there is a bull or bear obvious winner but I would say that it is a struggle of the two. 13000 is not breached for bears(support for now) and 13360 is not breached for the bulls (resistance). Wait for monday. :)
Saturday, 3 November 2012
EURUSD 04NOV12 onwards
EURUSD 04NOV12 onwards
Today we will cover a bit more on the index and EurUSD and Gold. Let's start by looking at the charts. First, let's look at EURUSD
EURUSD - Daily
I have devise out a systematic wave to write out my blog analysis.So I should start by using this template.
Resistance and Support:
R1= 1.301
R2=1.3116
S1=1.2820
S2=1.2670
Waveform:
On the daily chart, the pair seems to complete its 5 wave up on 17 oct and a obvious truncation had happened, this is inline with the divergence in RSI and MACD.Right now the formation of wave A is in progress and i am looking at
A. 1.2820 as a short term support
B. the support if breaks will head for 1.2742 which is 38.2% of the entire 5 wave up.
C.or 1.2576 which is 161.8% of the wave 5 up.
From this we should decide where is the most probable turning point for this wave down. We can zoom into the 4 hrs chart to take a closer peep.
EURUSD -4 Hr
I will not put those support and resistance lines here.
Waveform:
The waves are simply directly telling us it is a 5 wave down for the Wave A in daily that we saw. Thus, with that the target as you can see from the chart 5-A? will be turning at around 1.2797 region. This coincide with 161.8% of 4-A in this case. Look for bullish reversal candle stick as you can see from the indicator there are some buying force back..slowly.
Just another add on,looking at the USD index 4 hr chart it is forming a 5 wave up with some degree of divergence in the indicators. This adds up to the confidence that there might be a turn in Eurousd in the near term.
Today we will cover a bit more on the index and EurUSD and Gold. Let's start by looking at the charts. First, let's look at EURUSD
EURUSD - Daily
I have devise out a systematic wave to write out my blog analysis.So I should start by using this template.
Resistance and Support:
R1= 1.301
R2=1.3116
S1=1.2820
S2=1.2670
Waveform:
On the daily chart, the pair seems to complete its 5 wave up on 17 oct and a obvious truncation had happened, this is inline with the divergence in RSI and MACD.Right now the formation of wave A is in progress and i am looking at
A. 1.2820 as a short term support
B. the support if breaks will head for 1.2742 which is 38.2% of the entire 5 wave up.
C.or 1.2576 which is 161.8% of the wave 5 up.
From this we should decide where is the most probable turning point for this wave down. We can zoom into the 4 hrs chart to take a closer peep.
EURUSD -4 Hr
I will not put those support and resistance lines here.
Waveform:
The waves are simply directly telling us it is a 5 wave down for the Wave A in daily that we saw. Thus, with that the target as you can see from the chart 5-A? will be turning at around 1.2797 region. This coincide with 161.8% of 4-A in this case. Look for bullish reversal candle stick as you can see from the indicator there are some buying force back..slowly.
Just another add on,looking at the USD index 4 hr chart it is forming a 5 wave up with some degree of divergence in the indicators. This adds up to the confidence that there might be a turn in Eurousd in the near term.
Friday, 2 November 2012
DJI 2 nov 12
Last post I was looking at the 4 hourly chart...now to the daily it is showing me the same thing,same conclusion -Down JOnes :)
1.Look at the trendline it has been broken
2.This five wave up is an diagonal triangle which is ends the wave 5 since last year sept 2011.
3.The break down from the strong support of 13300+.
4. Now look at the chart, the A wave down should be completed at around 13080 ( 38.2%) fibo.Now we shall look at 13290-360 (50% and 61.8%) of leg A for possible retracement of this wave B up.
5. Look at the weakness in the MACD and RSI.
If DJI is to the above mentioned targets of 13290 and 360 today or monday, look for good reversal candle stick on monday or tuesday. You can either zoom in to the hourly or daily chart...depends which one suits your trading style. Happy trading :)
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