Sunday, 23 December 2012
Year End "house keeping and recording" for my trading
Hi all, this few days I wont have much or maybe no updates or posting as I will need to do some "house keeping and recording" for my trades this year. At the same time it will be good to do some self reflections and improving! Cheers! Merry X'mas to all and a happy new year ahead. May all of you have a nice nice year ahead! =)
Thursday, 20 December 2012
EURUSD 201212
EURUSD 201212
It has been a while after I post my EURUSD analysis. Nevertheless, I was still following the pair but just didnt have the time to post everything up (need some rest time for myself, and I am sick ). Well, heres my chart.
I mentioned about the trend changing in EURUSD in a bigger perspective and, the finishing of wave 4 in the daily chart of EURUSD (http://tradingsniper1shot1kill.blogspot.sg/2012/12/eurusd-091212.html)
I have also mentioned about the corrective wave at dec 8. End up it was a quick 3 waves corrective wave and ended as a wave 2 ( refer to above). With that the EURUSD indeed rallied to 1.618 (about 1.3284) of the wave 2 extension estimate for wave 3.To me,this wave 3 might be extended, and last night's pull back might pull back nicely to 1.3144 region and after which continue its upward movement to complete wave 3.
It has been a while after I post my EURUSD analysis. Nevertheless, I was still following the pair but just didnt have the time to post everything up (need some rest time for myself, and I am sick ). Well, heres my chart.
I mentioned about the trend changing in EURUSD in a bigger perspective and, the finishing of wave 4 in the daily chart of EURUSD (http://tradingsniper1shot1kill.blogspot.sg/2012/12/eurusd-091212.html)
I have also mentioned about the corrective wave at dec 8. End up it was a quick 3 waves corrective wave and ended as a wave 2 ( refer to above). With that the EURUSD indeed rallied to 1.618 (about 1.3284) of the wave 2 extension estimate for wave 3.To me,this wave 3 might be extended, and last night's pull back might pull back nicely to 1.3144 region and after which continue its upward movement to complete wave 3.
Tuesday, 18 December 2012
Gold a fake entry 191212
I got fake entries and exit for gold twice. First I saw a good short entry for breakout of pennant at 1695. All was good till the strong reversal at 1686 area. By that I saw a strong reversal which could meant harm to my short positions. I held on to it, but the reversal was couple with a divergence in the 1 hr chart . So I decided to take loss before it hits my target stoploss. And on the hourly chart I thought I can do a long since I saw a small double bottom with divergence in gold. It went up a little but came crashing down after that and broke the neckline. Once again, I did a cut loss as it broke the neck line. Refer to the 4hr and 1 hr chart above. The top is the 4 hr and below it is the 1 hr chart. Red line denotes the pennant i saw. and blue lines denotes the neckline of the double bottom. This is again the market big boys in action to confuse the crowd, although their main motive, as you can see on the right hand side (a big plunge) is obvious. Though my tech analysis told me that gold is bearish, but when the shorter term chart tell me otherwise I had a second thought. This is I guess how the Big boys played with our minds.
Look at the longer term I would need to sharpen my skills more on the mental part. But i guess i did well in stoploss and looking out for danger. For if I did not stoploss on my long I would have lost more.
Anyway, I did mention that 1680 need to be broken. As of now price is about 1674. More downside might come to reach my target of 1625 (around there). From then on one should look for higher low and higher high to ride the new third wave up. July - Oct = wave 1 , Oct - now = Wave 2 and wave 3 should come now.Shall see?
Gold 191212
Gold had hit its 1660 level and I believe the end of this correction will be over soon ..probably to 1630 to 1650 zone...time to bag in Some physical gold to keep for the 3rd wave up :)
Sunday, 16 December 2012
Gold updates 161212
Gold is quite a striaghtforward commodity to trade in, but at the same time it had also been very volatile lately. Let's check out the daily chart first.
Look at the bigger picture i believe gold is still in its corrective mode , A-B and a C. This is why I believe that at $1,720 region this commodity will face some strong resistance or headwind. In fact, it tilted down there on to close at $1,696 for the week. Down about $24. That's quite a bit.Overall, my short term bearish target of $1625-30 still holds provided that the recently supported $1675-80 region is taken of convincingly. Do take note wave A and B fell nicely into the channel.
With that let's look at the 4 hr chart.
On the 4 hr, we zoom in closer to the wave C and took at look where exactly are we in wave C. And as you can see recent 1720 price tag should be the wave 2 and if i am right wave 3 is in the progress. Look at the right hand side of the chart. I have observed a pennant chart pattern which, in this case should be more bearish than bullish as MACD pointed out that it is still under the zeronline level on the indicator.But for a pennant price can move either way. Of course, I will expect more sharp movements from this commodity in the week to come!Good luck trading!
Look at the bigger picture i believe gold is still in its corrective mode , A-B and a C. This is why I believe that at $1,720 region this commodity will face some strong resistance or headwind. In fact, it tilted down there on to close at $1,696 for the week. Down about $24. That's quite a bit.Overall, my short term bearish target of $1625-30 still holds provided that the recently supported $1675-80 region is taken of convincingly. Do take note wave A and B fell nicely into the channel.
With that let's look at the 4 hr chart.
DJI updates 161212
DJI
DJI as expected was not able to clear the 12270-300 strong support turned resistance and headed lower to end the week at 13160+. With that the shortist should be quite happy. If materalize to go lower, this turning point at 13270-300 should be a wave B up. The 29 days from prior high / 21 days from prior low did gave some good indication of a turning point for DJI this time round. In place will be a wave C down. We can further look at the DJI on a 4 hourly chart to get a closer look.
With the 4 hr chart, I am looking for a confirmation break of the uptrend to enter shorts. This should be due soon as you can see from the chart. And of course, if a retest of the trendline again might be good sign to reshort. So, next week will be another exciting week! Isn't feeling that well now..flu cought...yeah..whatever the sickness... I must get well soon!Haha.. But I won't post much today....Need some more rest. ;) Cheers~
DJI as expected was not able to clear the 12270-300 strong support turned resistance and headed lower to end the week at 13160+. With that the shortist should be quite happy. If materalize to go lower, this turning point at 13270-300 should be a wave B up. The 29 days from prior high / 21 days from prior low did gave some good indication of a turning point for DJI this time round. In place will be a wave C down. We can further look at the DJI on a 4 hourly chart to get a closer look.
With the 4 hr chart, I am looking for a confirmation break of the uptrend to enter shorts. This should be due soon as you can see from the chart. And of course, if a retest of the trendline again might be good sign to reshort. So, next week will be another exciting week! Isn't feeling that well now..flu cought...yeah..whatever the sickness... I must get well soon!Haha.. But I won't post much today....Need some more rest. ;) Cheers~
Monday, 10 December 2012
DJI and gold levels to take note
Gold, do take note of 1720 (check out your daily chart,you should know why) for any reversal candles or pattern to short.
For DJI, can take a look at 13270-90 ...tonight i think market will be quite FLAT ding dong 13170-200 i guess...
For DJI, can take a look at 13270-90 ...tonight i think market will be quite FLAT ding dong 13170-200 i guess...
Sunday, 9 December 2012
APPLE 090912
Yes, its apple not pear not orange.
Today I was curious and took at look at the apple chart on the daily chart.
Fully self explanatory chart, one glance it is a down trend chart with lower high and lower low in term of technical sense. In term of EW, these are the numbers i gave to this counter. On the hindsight, if i were to look at the chart a week or two ago, i might have shorted on end of wave 4 ( at $594). Of Coz,that is on hindsight.
Looking to short now would be more risky, but it would be profitable too since according to EW, the wave 5 should be ending at least at 1.618 extension of wave 4 which is around $449?On one knows. But on the other hand, what we call a truncation might happen at around $524. So, it would be best to check out for any support formed at $520 region before you intend to short this counter.Btw these are just purely my speculation and if you want to trade please consult your legalized brokers.Good luck!
Today I was curious and took at look at the apple chart on the daily chart.
Fully self explanatory chart, one glance it is a down trend chart with lower high and lower low in term of technical sense. In term of EW, these are the numbers i gave to this counter. On the hindsight, if i were to look at the chart a week or two ago, i might have shorted on end of wave 4 ( at $594). Of Coz,that is on hindsight.
Looking to short now would be more risky, but it would be profitable too since according to EW, the wave 5 should be ending at least at 1.618 extension of wave 4 which is around $449?On one knows. But on the other hand, what we call a truncation might happen at around $524. So, it would be best to check out for any support formed at $520 region before you intend to short this counter.Btw these are just purely my speculation and if you want to trade please consult your legalized brokers.Good luck!
DJI 091212 Updates
DJI
Right now DJI is at the tipping point i would say. First look at its daily chart.
The DJI future is reaching some headwind at either the 13160-90 where there is a 100d MA (aka 20 week MA, if you roll out your weekly chart). In addition, if say these levels are cleared, one can look to short the market at 13270-90 which can be a major resistance to clear. Either you do a quick short or riskier you can hold it longer. Since momentarily, there should be some pull back there. The 4 hrs chart below should show clearer picture for you all. ;)
Obviously the 61.8% retracement is retracement of the prior 5 wave down.
And there is a fibo retracement of also 61.8% (not shown in the
diagram) of prior wave A at 13200. Watch these points ;)
Right now DJI is at the tipping point i would say. First look at its daily chart.
The DJI future is reaching some headwind at either the 13160-90 where there is a 100d MA (aka 20 week MA, if you roll out your weekly chart). In addition, if say these levels are cleared, one can look to short the market at 13270-90 which can be a major resistance to clear. Either you do a quick short or riskier you can hold it longer. Since momentarily, there should be some pull back there. The 4 hrs chart below should show clearer picture for you all. ;)
EURUSD 091212
EURUSD
I took a look at the longer term trend in EURUSD, more than surprising /not I think we are in a trend reversal for EURUSD. Just look at the daily chart below. I will keep everything simple. ;)
For longer term position traders, it might be good entry point at those blue lines acting as trendline support. I believe the mid-long term trend is a uptrend.Take a closer look at right hand side most recent market actions. It looks to me like a wave 1 of the wave 5, which wave 5 i think it might end at around 1.3489. The correction as of last two days forming the wave 2. Let's look into 4 hr chart.
In this case of wave 2 (on larger degree in daily chart), we are looking at the final wave C to stop at somewhere around 1.2839 (61.8% of wave 1). In the 4 hr chart we might observe a rebound of EURUSD up to these 2 levels (in red and blue ) which I have drawn. Then a final wave C will began to stop at the stipulated target of 1.2839. Only then, there will be a movement of wave 3 ( known to be the fiercest and steepest movement among all impulsive waves). Let's see how the EURUSD work out and if my wavecount holds. :) Cheers
I took a look at the longer term trend in EURUSD, more than surprising /not I think we are in a trend reversal for EURUSD. Just look at the daily chart below. I will keep everything simple. ;)
For longer term position traders, it might be good entry point at those blue lines acting as trendline support. I believe the mid-long term trend is a uptrend.Take a closer look at right hand side most recent market actions. It looks to me like a wave 1 of the wave 5, which wave 5 i think it might end at around 1.3489. The correction as of last two days forming the wave 2. Let's look into 4 hr chart.
In this case of wave 2 (on larger degree in daily chart), we are looking at the final wave C to stop at somewhere around 1.2839 (61.8% of wave 1). In the 4 hr chart we might observe a rebound of EURUSD up to these 2 levels (in red and blue ) which I have drawn. Then a final wave C will began to stop at the stipulated target of 1.2839. Only then, there will be a movement of wave 3 ( known to be the fiercest and steepest movement among all impulsive waves). Let's see how the EURUSD work out and if my wavecount holds. :) Cheers
Friday, 7 December 2012
fake breakout 071212
Hi everyone,today i spotted something and would like to share with all of you.
The EURUSD and AUDUSD. I have been following these pair quite closely,these are what I have found.
EURUSD
The EURUSD and AUDUSD. I have been following these pair quite closely,these are what I have found.
EURUSD
Look at the first chart for EURUSD, notice the purple (or blue whatever it is ) at 1.309? This was the extension which I think the wave 5 will end. But no, yesterday the pair was so strong that it punch through this point and moved higher. See what happen today? This pair fell 200 pips from its yesterday's high. This was also in good agreement with the USD index which I have drew. This was quite a obvious "trap" for both long or short traders. Traders going short might have entered at the fibo extension of 1.309, but might be kicked out by the spike up. Yet, there is another camp of long-ist whom enter at break out will enter to long..
The USD Index is just to show you that exact same thing happened ( just invert the graph) at the exact same fibo extension.
Looking at it you all should know this pair will have traders in both camps killed. This is the game of the Big boys. So be very careful when you trade, never show hand as trading is never a Confirm + Chop game.
AUDUSD
The exact same happened in AUDUSD. In my charting I observed a five wave up and a completed wave A proceeding into wave B. I was betting on a completed Wave B at the 1.047-1.048 zone where a strong resistance was found for this pair. This is quite a high prob go short setup. But, see what happen at the red box? The pair spiked up and came down abruptly. This is again the trick of the Big boys....a bear and a bull trap....nicely played indeed.. Now the wave looks to me more like a expanded flat.
Once again i would like all to stay cautious and happy trading ;)
Thursday, 6 December 2012
EURUSD 071212
EURUSD 071212
From the 4 hrly chart I am looking to long eurusd after last nite downright beating of this pair. I will camp for any reversal to happen...if doesnt i shall not enter.
Looks to me like a corrective B will be coming from this 4 hrly chart. B wave are hard to trade, if I missed it i will rather wait for wave C to come ;) Cheers to all.
From the 4 hrly chart I am looking to long eurusd after last nite downright beating of this pair. I will camp for any reversal to happen...if doesnt i shall not enter.
Looks to me like a corrective B will be coming from this 4 hrly chart. B wave are hard to trade, if I missed it i will rather wait for wave C to come ;) Cheers to all.
Gold 061212
Gold
Let's zoom in onto gold..it has formed a bearish pattern ( those play tech analysis long enough should know). With this a break down will see further downside of gold 1681 or 1665?We shall watch for signal to short. :)
I would like to add on that if this pattern failed, we might see a push up of price to about 1702 - 03 which we might see some reactions there. And this might be the wave 4 of this entire wave count i shown in the figure above.
Let's zoom in onto gold..it has formed a bearish pattern ( those play tech analysis long enough should know). With this a break down will see further downside of gold 1681 or 1665?We shall watch for signal to short. :)
I would like to add on that if this pattern failed, we might see a push up of price to about 1702 - 03 which we might see some reactions there. And this might be the wave 4 of this entire wave count i shown in the figure above.
Wednesday, 5 December 2012
Gold
nicely, the gold had rebounded off the 1.618 fibo line of 1690....if gold is to follow the wave count ...you all should know where it should end this uptrend wave and proceed with further downside ;) Cheers
Tuesday, 4 December 2012
Monday, 3 December 2012
DJI updates 031212
DJI
Just a short updates on the DJI,i have did some changes to my wave count and this is my alternative wave count which I have not shown due to it might coz confusion.
Here it is...
I am looking at DJI to meet some intermediate resistance at 13160-70... The wave 3 might be extended. We shall watch.
Just a short updates on the DJI,i have did some changes to my wave count and this is my alternative wave count which I have not shown due to it might coz confusion.
Here it is...
I am looking at DJI to meet some intermediate resistance at 13160-70... The wave 3 might be extended. We shall watch.
SGDJPY 031212
Why suddenly was I looking at SGDJPY? For fun?Nope. Cause I am going to japan next year march and I would like to maximize my exchange rate so i am spent more in japan at lower cost.HAHA...Well, I found something interesting and would like to share with you all my wave count analysis on this pair.
Looking at the chart should more or less tell your everything. A extended wave 3 is now forming a subwave 4 after hitting its 261.8% fibo line, more upside should be see once this correction is over and we might probably see it breaking 2-3 years high (since 2008). This should be the case as I felt that japan as of now is undergoing an election, and in order to rally its stocks (pre-election phenomenon), she needs to depress her currency. Thus, this way I will see a strong move in this pair soon. In any case, this is a very nice uptrend pair if you were to zoom out of this time frame which I had shown.
Looking at the chart should more or less tell your everything. A extended wave 3 is now forming a subwave 4 after hitting its 261.8% fibo line, more upside should be see once this correction is over and we might probably see it breaking 2-3 years high (since 2008). This should be the case as I felt that japan as of now is undergoing an election, and in order to rally its stocks (pre-election phenomenon), she needs to depress her currency. Thus, this way I will see a strong move in this pair soon. In any case, this is a very nice uptrend pair if you were to zoom out of this time frame which I had shown.
Gold updates 031212
Gold movements were largely inline with my analysis and I was glad. With a turn at 1730 region, will we see this commodity drop to 1690 in the near term?We shall see... ;)
EURUSD updates
EURUSD
A short update on what i am seeing on my chart for this pair. Take a look at the EURUSD on a daily, i am starting to see a finished A-B-C corrective wave which is also our wave 4. Proceeding that should be a wave 5 up. Let's look at the 4 hr chart for any short term trading signals.
The wave counts are as labeled and we should see a turning soon. From what I see here the pair might turn at 1.309, both the MACD and RSI indicators are telling me something, a turn is near and all we need to do is wait for a good shorting signal (candlesticks or time factor).
Watch it. ;)
A short update on what i am seeing on my chart for this pair. Take a look at the EURUSD on a daily, i am starting to see a finished A-B-C corrective wave which is also our wave 4. Proceeding that should be a wave 5 up. Let's look at the 4 hr chart for any short term trading signals.
The wave counts are as labeled and we should see a turning soon. From what I see here the pair might turn at 1.309, both the MACD and RSI indicators are telling me something, a turn is near and all we need to do is wait for a good shorting signal (candlesticks or time factor).
Watch it. ;)
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