Sunday, 23 December 2012
Year End "house keeping and recording" for my trading
Hi all, this few days I wont have much or maybe no updates or posting as I will need to do some "house keeping and recording" for my trades this year. At the same time it will be good to do some self reflections and improving! Cheers! Merry X'mas to all and a happy new year ahead. May all of you have a nice nice year ahead! =)
Thursday, 20 December 2012
EURUSD 201212
EURUSD 201212
It has been a while after I post my EURUSD analysis. Nevertheless, I was still following the pair but just didnt have the time to post everything up (need some rest time for myself, and I am sick ). Well, heres my chart.
I mentioned about the trend changing in EURUSD in a bigger perspective and, the finishing of wave 4 in the daily chart of EURUSD (http://tradingsniper1shot1kill.blogspot.sg/2012/12/eurusd-091212.html)
I have also mentioned about the corrective wave at dec 8. End up it was a quick 3 waves corrective wave and ended as a wave 2 ( refer to above). With that the EURUSD indeed rallied to 1.618 (about 1.3284) of the wave 2 extension estimate for wave 3.To me,this wave 3 might be extended, and last night's pull back might pull back nicely to 1.3144 region and after which continue its upward movement to complete wave 3.
It has been a while after I post my EURUSD analysis. Nevertheless, I was still following the pair but just didnt have the time to post everything up (need some rest time for myself, and I am sick ). Well, heres my chart.
I mentioned about the trend changing in EURUSD in a bigger perspective and, the finishing of wave 4 in the daily chart of EURUSD (http://tradingsniper1shot1kill.blogspot.sg/2012/12/eurusd-091212.html)
I have also mentioned about the corrective wave at dec 8. End up it was a quick 3 waves corrective wave and ended as a wave 2 ( refer to above). With that the EURUSD indeed rallied to 1.618 (about 1.3284) of the wave 2 extension estimate for wave 3.To me,this wave 3 might be extended, and last night's pull back might pull back nicely to 1.3144 region and after which continue its upward movement to complete wave 3.
Tuesday, 18 December 2012
Gold a fake entry 191212
I got fake entries and exit for gold twice. First I saw a good short entry for breakout of pennant at 1695. All was good till the strong reversal at 1686 area. By that I saw a strong reversal which could meant harm to my short positions. I held on to it, but the reversal was couple with a divergence in the 1 hr chart . So I decided to take loss before it hits my target stoploss. And on the hourly chart I thought I can do a long since I saw a small double bottom with divergence in gold. It went up a little but came crashing down after that and broke the neckline. Once again, I did a cut loss as it broke the neck line. Refer to the 4hr and 1 hr chart above. The top is the 4 hr and below it is the 1 hr chart. Red line denotes the pennant i saw. and blue lines denotes the neckline of the double bottom. This is again the market big boys in action to confuse the crowd, although their main motive, as you can see on the right hand side (a big plunge) is obvious. Though my tech analysis told me that gold is bearish, but when the shorter term chart tell me otherwise I had a second thought. This is I guess how the Big boys played with our minds.
Look at the longer term I would need to sharpen my skills more on the mental part. But i guess i did well in stoploss and looking out for danger. For if I did not stoploss on my long I would have lost more.
Anyway, I did mention that 1680 need to be broken. As of now price is about 1674. More downside might come to reach my target of 1625 (around there). From then on one should look for higher low and higher high to ride the new third wave up. July - Oct = wave 1 , Oct - now = Wave 2 and wave 3 should come now.Shall see?
Gold 191212
Gold had hit its 1660 level and I believe the end of this correction will be over soon ..probably to 1630 to 1650 zone...time to bag in Some physical gold to keep for the 3rd wave up :)
Sunday, 16 December 2012
Gold updates 161212
Gold is quite a striaghtforward commodity to trade in, but at the same time it had also been very volatile lately. Let's check out the daily chart first.
Look at the bigger picture i believe gold is still in its corrective mode , A-B and a C. This is why I believe that at $1,720 region this commodity will face some strong resistance or headwind. In fact, it tilted down there on to close at $1,696 for the week. Down about $24. That's quite a bit.Overall, my short term bearish target of $1625-30 still holds provided that the recently supported $1675-80 region is taken of convincingly. Do take note wave A and B fell nicely into the channel.
With that let's look at the 4 hr chart.
On the 4 hr, we zoom in closer to the wave C and took at look where exactly are we in wave C. And as you can see recent 1720 price tag should be the wave 2 and if i am right wave 3 is in the progress. Look at the right hand side of the chart. I have observed a pennant chart pattern which, in this case should be more bearish than bullish as MACD pointed out that it is still under the zeronline level on the indicator.But for a pennant price can move either way. Of course, I will expect more sharp movements from this commodity in the week to come!Good luck trading!
Look at the bigger picture i believe gold is still in its corrective mode , A-B and a C. This is why I believe that at $1,720 region this commodity will face some strong resistance or headwind. In fact, it tilted down there on to close at $1,696 for the week. Down about $24. That's quite a bit.Overall, my short term bearish target of $1625-30 still holds provided that the recently supported $1675-80 region is taken of convincingly. Do take note wave A and B fell nicely into the channel.
With that let's look at the 4 hr chart.
DJI updates 161212
DJI
DJI as expected was not able to clear the 12270-300 strong support turned resistance and headed lower to end the week at 13160+. With that the shortist should be quite happy. If materalize to go lower, this turning point at 13270-300 should be a wave B up. The 29 days from prior high / 21 days from prior low did gave some good indication of a turning point for DJI this time round. In place will be a wave C down. We can further look at the DJI on a 4 hourly chart to get a closer look.
With the 4 hr chart, I am looking for a confirmation break of the uptrend to enter shorts. This should be due soon as you can see from the chart. And of course, if a retest of the trendline again might be good sign to reshort. So, next week will be another exciting week! Isn't feeling that well now..flu cought...yeah..whatever the sickness... I must get well soon!Haha.. But I won't post much today....Need some more rest. ;) Cheers~
DJI as expected was not able to clear the 12270-300 strong support turned resistance and headed lower to end the week at 13160+. With that the shortist should be quite happy. If materalize to go lower, this turning point at 13270-300 should be a wave B up. The 29 days from prior high / 21 days from prior low did gave some good indication of a turning point for DJI this time round. In place will be a wave C down. We can further look at the DJI on a 4 hourly chart to get a closer look.
With the 4 hr chart, I am looking for a confirmation break of the uptrend to enter shorts. This should be due soon as you can see from the chart. And of course, if a retest of the trendline again might be good sign to reshort. So, next week will be another exciting week! Isn't feeling that well now..flu cought...yeah..whatever the sickness... I must get well soon!Haha.. But I won't post much today....Need some more rest. ;) Cheers~
Monday, 10 December 2012
DJI and gold levels to take note
Gold, do take note of 1720 (check out your daily chart,you should know why) for any reversal candles or pattern to short.
For DJI, can take a look at 13270-90 ...tonight i think market will be quite FLAT ding dong 13170-200 i guess...
For DJI, can take a look at 13270-90 ...tonight i think market will be quite FLAT ding dong 13170-200 i guess...
Sunday, 9 December 2012
APPLE 090912
Yes, its apple not pear not orange.
Today I was curious and took at look at the apple chart on the daily chart.
Fully self explanatory chart, one glance it is a down trend chart with lower high and lower low in term of technical sense. In term of EW, these are the numbers i gave to this counter. On the hindsight, if i were to look at the chart a week or two ago, i might have shorted on end of wave 4 ( at $594). Of Coz,that is on hindsight.
Looking to short now would be more risky, but it would be profitable too since according to EW, the wave 5 should be ending at least at 1.618 extension of wave 4 which is around $449?On one knows. But on the other hand, what we call a truncation might happen at around $524. So, it would be best to check out for any support formed at $520 region before you intend to short this counter.Btw these are just purely my speculation and if you want to trade please consult your legalized brokers.Good luck!
Today I was curious and took at look at the apple chart on the daily chart.
Fully self explanatory chart, one glance it is a down trend chart with lower high and lower low in term of technical sense. In term of EW, these are the numbers i gave to this counter. On the hindsight, if i were to look at the chart a week or two ago, i might have shorted on end of wave 4 ( at $594). Of Coz,that is on hindsight.
Looking to short now would be more risky, but it would be profitable too since according to EW, the wave 5 should be ending at least at 1.618 extension of wave 4 which is around $449?On one knows. But on the other hand, what we call a truncation might happen at around $524. So, it would be best to check out for any support formed at $520 region before you intend to short this counter.Btw these are just purely my speculation and if you want to trade please consult your legalized brokers.Good luck!
DJI 091212 Updates
DJI
Right now DJI is at the tipping point i would say. First look at its daily chart.
The DJI future is reaching some headwind at either the 13160-90 where there is a 100d MA (aka 20 week MA, if you roll out your weekly chart). In addition, if say these levels are cleared, one can look to short the market at 13270-90 which can be a major resistance to clear. Either you do a quick short or riskier you can hold it longer. Since momentarily, there should be some pull back there. The 4 hrs chart below should show clearer picture for you all. ;)
Obviously the 61.8% retracement is retracement of the prior 5 wave down.
And there is a fibo retracement of also 61.8% (not shown in the
diagram) of prior wave A at 13200. Watch these points ;)
Right now DJI is at the tipping point i would say. First look at its daily chart.
The DJI future is reaching some headwind at either the 13160-90 where there is a 100d MA (aka 20 week MA, if you roll out your weekly chart). In addition, if say these levels are cleared, one can look to short the market at 13270-90 which can be a major resistance to clear. Either you do a quick short or riskier you can hold it longer. Since momentarily, there should be some pull back there. The 4 hrs chart below should show clearer picture for you all. ;)
EURUSD 091212
EURUSD
I took a look at the longer term trend in EURUSD, more than surprising /not I think we are in a trend reversal for EURUSD. Just look at the daily chart below. I will keep everything simple. ;)
For longer term position traders, it might be good entry point at those blue lines acting as trendline support. I believe the mid-long term trend is a uptrend.Take a closer look at right hand side most recent market actions. It looks to me like a wave 1 of the wave 5, which wave 5 i think it might end at around 1.3489. The correction as of last two days forming the wave 2. Let's look into 4 hr chart.
In this case of wave 2 (on larger degree in daily chart), we are looking at the final wave C to stop at somewhere around 1.2839 (61.8% of wave 1). In the 4 hr chart we might observe a rebound of EURUSD up to these 2 levels (in red and blue ) which I have drawn. Then a final wave C will began to stop at the stipulated target of 1.2839. Only then, there will be a movement of wave 3 ( known to be the fiercest and steepest movement among all impulsive waves). Let's see how the EURUSD work out and if my wavecount holds. :) Cheers
I took a look at the longer term trend in EURUSD, more than surprising /not I think we are in a trend reversal for EURUSD. Just look at the daily chart below. I will keep everything simple. ;)
For longer term position traders, it might be good entry point at those blue lines acting as trendline support. I believe the mid-long term trend is a uptrend.Take a closer look at right hand side most recent market actions. It looks to me like a wave 1 of the wave 5, which wave 5 i think it might end at around 1.3489. The correction as of last two days forming the wave 2. Let's look into 4 hr chart.
In this case of wave 2 (on larger degree in daily chart), we are looking at the final wave C to stop at somewhere around 1.2839 (61.8% of wave 1). In the 4 hr chart we might observe a rebound of EURUSD up to these 2 levels (in red and blue ) which I have drawn. Then a final wave C will began to stop at the stipulated target of 1.2839. Only then, there will be a movement of wave 3 ( known to be the fiercest and steepest movement among all impulsive waves). Let's see how the EURUSD work out and if my wavecount holds. :) Cheers
Friday, 7 December 2012
fake breakout 071212
Hi everyone,today i spotted something and would like to share with all of you.
The EURUSD and AUDUSD. I have been following these pair quite closely,these are what I have found.
EURUSD
The EURUSD and AUDUSD. I have been following these pair quite closely,these are what I have found.
EURUSD
Look at the first chart for EURUSD, notice the purple (or blue whatever it is ) at 1.309? This was the extension which I think the wave 5 will end. But no, yesterday the pair was so strong that it punch through this point and moved higher. See what happen today? This pair fell 200 pips from its yesterday's high. This was also in good agreement with the USD index which I have drew. This was quite a obvious "trap" for both long or short traders. Traders going short might have entered at the fibo extension of 1.309, but might be kicked out by the spike up. Yet, there is another camp of long-ist whom enter at break out will enter to long..
The USD Index is just to show you that exact same thing happened ( just invert the graph) at the exact same fibo extension.
Looking at it you all should know this pair will have traders in both camps killed. This is the game of the Big boys. So be very careful when you trade, never show hand as trading is never a Confirm + Chop game.
AUDUSD
The exact same happened in AUDUSD. In my charting I observed a five wave up and a completed wave A proceeding into wave B. I was betting on a completed Wave B at the 1.047-1.048 zone where a strong resistance was found for this pair. This is quite a high prob go short setup. But, see what happen at the red box? The pair spiked up and came down abruptly. This is again the trick of the Big boys....a bear and a bull trap....nicely played indeed.. Now the wave looks to me more like a expanded flat.
Once again i would like all to stay cautious and happy trading ;)
Thursday, 6 December 2012
EURUSD 071212
EURUSD 071212
From the 4 hrly chart I am looking to long eurusd after last nite downright beating of this pair. I will camp for any reversal to happen...if doesnt i shall not enter.
Looks to me like a corrective B will be coming from this 4 hrly chart. B wave are hard to trade, if I missed it i will rather wait for wave C to come ;) Cheers to all.
From the 4 hrly chart I am looking to long eurusd after last nite downright beating of this pair. I will camp for any reversal to happen...if doesnt i shall not enter.
Looks to me like a corrective B will be coming from this 4 hrly chart. B wave are hard to trade, if I missed it i will rather wait for wave C to come ;) Cheers to all.
Gold 061212
Gold
Let's zoom in onto gold..it has formed a bearish pattern ( those play tech analysis long enough should know). With this a break down will see further downside of gold 1681 or 1665?We shall watch for signal to short. :)
I would like to add on that if this pattern failed, we might see a push up of price to about 1702 - 03 which we might see some reactions there. And this might be the wave 4 of this entire wave count i shown in the figure above.
Let's zoom in onto gold..it has formed a bearish pattern ( those play tech analysis long enough should know). With this a break down will see further downside of gold 1681 or 1665?We shall watch for signal to short. :)
I would like to add on that if this pattern failed, we might see a push up of price to about 1702 - 03 which we might see some reactions there. And this might be the wave 4 of this entire wave count i shown in the figure above.
Wednesday, 5 December 2012
Gold
nicely, the gold had rebounded off the 1.618 fibo line of 1690....if gold is to follow the wave count ...you all should know where it should end this uptrend wave and proceed with further downside ;) Cheers
Tuesday, 4 December 2012
Monday, 3 December 2012
DJI updates 031212
DJI
Just a short updates on the DJI,i have did some changes to my wave count and this is my alternative wave count which I have not shown due to it might coz confusion.
Here it is...
I am looking at DJI to meet some intermediate resistance at 13160-70... The wave 3 might be extended. We shall watch.
Just a short updates on the DJI,i have did some changes to my wave count and this is my alternative wave count which I have not shown due to it might coz confusion.
Here it is...
I am looking at DJI to meet some intermediate resistance at 13160-70... The wave 3 might be extended. We shall watch.
SGDJPY 031212
Why suddenly was I looking at SGDJPY? For fun?Nope. Cause I am going to japan next year march and I would like to maximize my exchange rate so i am spent more in japan at lower cost.HAHA...Well, I found something interesting and would like to share with you all my wave count analysis on this pair.
Looking at the chart should more or less tell your everything. A extended wave 3 is now forming a subwave 4 after hitting its 261.8% fibo line, more upside should be see once this correction is over and we might probably see it breaking 2-3 years high (since 2008). This should be the case as I felt that japan as of now is undergoing an election, and in order to rally its stocks (pre-election phenomenon), she needs to depress her currency. Thus, this way I will see a strong move in this pair soon. In any case, this is a very nice uptrend pair if you were to zoom out of this time frame which I had shown.
Looking at the chart should more or less tell your everything. A extended wave 3 is now forming a subwave 4 after hitting its 261.8% fibo line, more upside should be see once this correction is over and we might probably see it breaking 2-3 years high (since 2008). This should be the case as I felt that japan as of now is undergoing an election, and in order to rally its stocks (pre-election phenomenon), she needs to depress her currency. Thus, this way I will see a strong move in this pair soon. In any case, this is a very nice uptrend pair if you were to zoom out of this time frame which I had shown.
Gold updates 031212
Gold movements were largely inline with my analysis and I was glad. With a turn at 1730 region, will we see this commodity drop to 1690 in the near term?We shall see... ;)
EURUSD updates
EURUSD
A short update on what i am seeing on my chart for this pair. Take a look at the EURUSD on a daily, i am starting to see a finished A-B-C corrective wave which is also our wave 4. Proceeding that should be a wave 5 up. Let's look at the 4 hr chart for any short term trading signals.
The wave counts are as labeled and we should see a turning soon. From what I see here the pair might turn at 1.309, both the MACD and RSI indicators are telling me something, a turn is near and all we need to do is wait for a good shorting signal (candlesticks or time factor).
Watch it. ;)
A short update on what i am seeing on my chart for this pair. Take a look at the EURUSD on a daily, i am starting to see a finished A-B-C corrective wave which is also our wave 4. Proceeding that should be a wave 5 up. Let's look at the 4 hr chart for any short term trading signals.
The wave counts are as labeled and we should see a turning soon. From what I see here the pair might turn at 1.309, both the MACD and RSI indicators are telling me something, a turn is near and all we need to do is wait for a good shorting signal (candlesticks or time factor).
Watch it. ;)
Thursday, 29 November 2012
USD index relating EURUSD
What a smoke screen created by the Big hands... last night we saw a sharp dump and push action on EURUSD, thought it went my way (by going down) but next morning the pair reversed up stronger. So,the 8000 level in usd index cant be held, and if we see further upside in EURUSD We shall focus on the next probable level on USD index which is the 7972 (1.618 extension of wave 4). From there we shall see some turning once again in EURUSD....
Gold 291112
With gold big plunge last nite,but shortly after there was a rebound up due to strong rally from the indices and plunge in the USD index. So, who says when equities down gold will go down?I dont think so!And if you were observing the market close enough, movements of gold and equities were lately directly correlated.
Gold, had been behaving quite inline with the wave count, we saw 1706 was the lowest point for last night which it coincide with the 61.8% of the prior wave B. Right after it stage a strong rebound to go as high as 1725 (as of writing)...Look at how these fibo lines act as temp stoppage points for gold...beautiful...This pullback i am looking at 1730 and 1736 (50 and 61.8% of wave 1) before a turn will commence to finish this Wave 2 up. Overall the trend to me is still a five wave down Wave C. We shall watch closely...how these fibo points act as resistance or support..
Gold, had been behaving quite inline with the wave count, we saw 1706 was the lowest point for last night which it coincide with the 61.8% of the prior wave B. Right after it stage a strong rebound to go as high as 1725 (as of writing)...Look at how these fibo lines act as temp stoppage points for gold...beautiful...This pullback i am looking at 1730 and 1736 (50 and 61.8% of wave 1) before a turn will commence to finish this Wave 2 up. Overall the trend to me is still a five wave down Wave C. We shall watch closely...how these fibo points act as resistance or support..
EURUSD update on another pespective 291112
We can take a look at the Dollar index while playing main currency pair that is tied to the USD, namely swiss franc, yen,eur etc.....On that note i will share with you people what i saw from the dollar index.
look at the right hand side of the chart where I named a 5 wave down from 1-A ,2-A and so on..each of the wave coincide nicely to the retracement or extension of each wave count. Thus, we can see that now we are moving into wave 5-A which we might see target of this wave 5 reaching 7972 which is the 1.618 extension of wave 4. But, we can also see a truncation happening, if the dollar index were to rebound from the 8007 price point (end point of wave 3). These are the two scenerios that might happen. Of coz a drop to 7972 will see eurusd pair rally further up above 1.30 as of now, or if 8007 holds, we will see 1.30 region being acting as a resistance again for the eurusd pair.. You can pull out any chart related to dollar index and label the wave count,if it go inline with what you seen on the dollar index chart..it might be a good signal for short/long.
.once again happy trading ;)
look at the right hand side of the chart where I named a 5 wave down from 1-A ,2-A and so on..each of the wave coincide nicely to the retracement or extension of each wave count. Thus, we can see that now we are moving into wave 5-A which we might see target of this wave 5 reaching 7972 which is the 1.618 extension of wave 4. But, we can also see a truncation happening, if the dollar index were to rebound from the 8007 price point (end point of wave 3). These are the two scenerios that might happen. Of coz a drop to 7972 will see eurusd pair rally further up above 1.30 as of now, or if 8007 holds, we will see 1.30 region being acting as a resistance again for the eurusd pair.. You can pull out any chart related to dollar index and label the wave count,if it go inline with what you seen on the dollar index chart..it might be a good signal for short/long.
.once again happy trading ;)
Wednesday, 28 November 2012
spectacle dropped rally
Big hands know i published bearish chart...want to prove me wrong...hahaha...okay...i keep quiet ...for the moment..hahaha...spectacular rally +100+ woohoo...but still within the range..short on rally?let's c
DJI short updates 281112
For those whom frequent my blog, thank you. And for those whom are new, you might need to refer to my previous entries to understand. Since my analysis on DJI, I have mentioned some of the possible turning point for it...at 12400-500 region and now the 12870 and 12970 region. not very spot on but is realy somewhere there which you can take up short position at, i bet those who shorted at 12970 were happy now. Looking at the wave count I am looking at a formation of a wave 5 which in this case might see it reaching 12120 (1.618 ext of wave 4) as its eventual target . But of coz nothing is for sure. To play safe, if you were already in short you might wan to pick up money along the way (at major support or fibo ratios as drawn here) and at the same time add positions at each pull back up since overall direction is a downward one. Happy trading!
Gold 281112
Tuesday, 27 November 2012
eurusd
as mentioned the pair fell and it might fall even lower judging from the way it is now...gold had also fallen off its 1750 resistance in my last posting...although some corrections of the Wave count needs to b done for gold overall I still see a wave c coming
Monday, 26 November 2012
EURUSD 261112
Watch the turning point that cant push higher from the red trendline (also as drawn previously http://tradingsniper1shot1kill.blogspot.sg/2012/11/blog-post.html) which I have drawn....beware...near to 61.8% retracement too...wait to short! :)
* Just to add on, if you were on the daily chart, you will see that the days count from 17 sept 12 high is a 61 day till date (26/11/12). Beware and this time factor coincide near to the 61.8% retracement.....get ready for some actions....as can see the candle doesnt look anymore decisive in the 4hr chart.
Monday, 19 November 2012
dji updates 201112
judging at the spectacular rally last night the dji rallied and invalid the alternate wave count I made...thus in a more macroperspective on the daily chart I mention we shall now look for any reversal at 12880 and 12970 region cheers ..as speculated this turn will be fast n furious
Sunday, 18 November 2012
AUDUSD 181112
Hi Evian,
Thanks for your comment and this is a post dedicated for you on AUDUSD. This post can also be read by those whom are interested or trade on this pair. I am trading still on AUDUSD but just that I didnt do any posting for it.First of all let's look at the daily chart as show below:
The wedge which is for wave B is already completed at point E as shown here. But something you might want to take note is that of the wave E end point did not really hit the upper trendline of the wedge.So what does that tells you?It might signal that the upwave is losing momentum drastically and this C wave down will be very drastic. (Btw if you were to look at my Gold chart posting today, you will notice Gold and AUDUSD is going into the same wave ,which is wave C. It is not called a commodity currency for no reason. :) ). I feel that the wave C will eventually hit 0.9944 as its primary target. And of cause there will be up and downs where you should look into to short ( since this trend is a down trend). This is as much as I would want to say about AUDUSD, as for when to initate your trade, look into the wave internals that will be formed along the way. Happy trading! ;)
By the way if you look into the 4 hr chart, do look for the retest of the lower trend line of this wedge for good short entry if this line is meant to be tested again.
Thanks for your comment and this is a post dedicated for you on AUDUSD. This post can also be read by those whom are interested or trade on this pair. I am trading still on AUDUSD but just that I didnt do any posting for it.First of all let's look at the daily chart as show below:
By the way if you look into the 4 hr chart, do look for the retest of the lower trend line of this wedge for good short entry if this line is meant to be tested again.
DJI updates181112
DJI 181112
DJI on the daily had dropped quite a bit and had stopped nicely at the 2.618 level (of 13000-13300 wave C-2). And this level at 12490 was held and a strong rebound was seen on Friday. With that, one should expect the rebound to kick in and a rally to about 12880 or 12979 (0.5 and 0.618 of 13300 to 12460 wave down). But on a closer examination of the internals of wave using 4 hr chart. One can see two wave counts which i proposed as shown below, in blue and red.
The light blue wave count had a completed five wave count ,but the problem is that Wave 3 is the shortest!And that is a violation of the EW principles. Thus, it should be discarded. The one is red showed that the wave 3 is formed and a wave 4 will be in progress. In this case wave 4 should never exceed 12730 for it to be valid.
Looking at this, i have a conclusion. DJI will have a rally to 12680 -12730 and a wave 5 down will continue to complete the C-3 which is shown on the daily chart. This Wave 5 might end at the same point of 12490 which we call it a truncation or exceed the 2.618 level.
DJI on the daily had dropped quite a bit and had stopped nicely at the 2.618 level (of 13000-13300 wave C-2). And this level at 12490 was held and a strong rebound was seen on Friday. With that, one should expect the rebound to kick in and a rally to about 12880 or 12979 (0.5 and 0.618 of 13300 to 12460 wave down). But on a closer examination of the internals of wave using 4 hr chart. One can see two wave counts which i proposed as shown below, in blue and red.
Looking at this, i have a conclusion. DJI will have a rally to 12680 -12730 and a wave 5 down will continue to complete the C-3 which is shown on the daily chart. This Wave 5 might end at the same point of 12490 which we call it a truncation or exceed the 2.618 level.
Gold updates 181112
Gold 181112
As mentioned in my last post, i was mentioning to go short on gold on two occasion, 1735 and 1750. I went on saying that if at this point gold turns, it will be the beginning of wave C down which if you are a EW person you will know that it is the most drastic wave to be prepared for. Right now price is about 1714. More downside is to come and I am targeting this wave to hit a low of 1631 where if you have a chart,pull to the left and, you should see that it is a good resistance turned support area. Cheers to those who shorted (*including myself*) =)
As mentioned in my last post, i was mentioning to go short on gold on two occasion, 1735 and 1750. I went on saying that if at this point gold turns, it will be the beginning of wave C down which if you are a EW person you will know that it is the most drastic wave to be prepared for. Right now price is about 1714. More downside is to come and I am targeting this wave to hit a low of 1631 where if you have a chart,pull to the left and, you should see that it is a good resistance turned support area. Cheers to those who shorted (*including myself*) =)
EURUSD Updates 181112
EURUSD Updates
As of last EURUSD posting, i have mentioned that EURUSD had hit a temp bottom at 1.2665 which coincide with the 2.618 (of 1.3022 - 1.2886, Wave 4 up in this case). As such, wedge was broke out as mentioned. And as of last friday's trading , a higher low was formed. This might propel the pair to a high of 1.2888 (0.618 of 1.3023-1.2665) ,but of coz a few hurdle needs to be cleared before reaching this target.
But of coz this is a wave B up, eventual target i am looking at is between 1.29 -1.2958 (0.5 - 0.618 of this five wave down shown).
As of last EURUSD posting, i have mentioned that EURUSD had hit a temp bottom at 1.2665 which coincide with the 2.618 (of 1.3022 - 1.2886, Wave 4 up in this case). As such, wedge was broke out as mentioned. And as of last friday's trading , a higher low was formed. This might propel the pair to a high of 1.2888 (0.618 of 1.3023-1.2665) ,but of coz a few hurdle needs to be cleared before reaching this target.
But of coz this is a wave B up, eventual target i am looking at is between 1.29 -1.2958 (0.5 - 0.618 of this five wave down shown).
Thursday, 15 November 2012
enjoy my weekend hope same for u all
no trading post for today coz it's Tgif! hoped that from my cal u all have profited! :) happy trading!here are just some pictures to share with you all which i took from Legoland Malaysia! :D
Monday, 12 November 2012
EURUSD 12Nov12
EURUSD 12Nov12
Look for entry at after 5th wave (5-5-A) of this diagonal triangle. The end point is around 1.2665, once the pair breaks out of the upper trendline of the diagonal triangle, a long entry can be initiated for a relief rally in EURUSD. Target to see is 1.288.
Look for entry at after 5th wave (5-5-A) of this diagonal triangle. The end point is around 1.2665, once the pair breaks out of the upper trendline of the diagonal triangle, a long entry can be initiated for a relief rally in EURUSD. Target to see is 1.288.
Friday, 9 November 2012
DJI 121112 UPDATES
DJI 121112
Spectacular plunge observed on the dji. I was always bearish on this counter no doubt. Now look at it. I had breached the 13000 level which I have mentioned and dropped more. Let's look at when we can drain some money from this hard and fast correction.Levels as I mentioned were tested and down down jones goes..Haha. As mentioned 13290 was a very clear support turned resistance which was tested multiple times last week before it gives the Big boys the go ahead to plunge the market (tat's what i feel) ;)
Okay a few things to note, this is a diagonal triangle and a completed A-E waves were formed. Thus, in fact a break down from the lower trendline spell trouble for DJI. Enough of the talk and let's go back to the fundamentals.
Resistance and support:
R1=13000
R2=13290
S1= 12826 (as now DJI still lingering over that region)
S2= 13560
Waveform: This wave down is considered a Wave C and it should consist five wave down I have labeled them as C-1,C2 and C3. I am expecting C3 to stop at either 50% (12820) or at 61.8%(12560) region. This will initiate a relief rally up to 13000. And from there this support turned resistance should be stopping further up move and turn the market further downwards towards 12000 which is my expected target for wave 5 of this wave C correction.From what i see on last friday's market actions, people are clueless what to do thus the doji-like candle which was formed. Let's c how Monday goes. If 13000 is retested again. It will be a good target to short with conviction!Cheers!
Indicator:No divergence seen as of yet.
Spectacular plunge observed on the dji. I was always bearish on this counter no doubt. Now look at it. I had breached the 13000 level which I have mentioned and dropped more. Let's look at when we can drain some money from this hard and fast correction.Levels as I mentioned were tested and down down jones goes..Haha. As mentioned 13290 was a very clear support turned resistance which was tested multiple times last week before it gives the Big boys the go ahead to plunge the market (tat's what i feel) ;)
Okay a few things to note, this is a diagonal triangle and a completed A-E waves were formed. Thus, in fact a break down from the lower trendline spell trouble for DJI. Enough of the talk and let's go back to the fundamentals.
Resistance and support:
R1=13000
R2=13290
S1= 12826 (as now DJI still lingering over that region)
S2= 13560
Waveform: This wave down is considered a Wave C and it should consist five wave down I have labeled them as C-1,C2 and C3. I am expecting C3 to stop at either 50% (12820) or at 61.8%(12560) region. This will initiate a relief rally up to 13000. And from there this support turned resistance should be stopping further up move and turn the market further downwards towards 12000 which is my expected target for wave 5 of this wave C correction.From what i see on last friday's market actions, people are clueless what to do thus the doji-like candle which was formed. Let's c how Monday goes. If 13000 is retested again. It will be a good target to short with conviction!Cheers!
Indicator:No divergence seen as of yet.
Sunday, 4 November 2012
04 Nov 12 - Gold gold Go away come again another day..soon..it will rebound
Gold XAUUSD
To cut it short, I think this chart is very nicely "created" for Elliottians to analyze. To me most of the extensions and retracements are well inline with Elliott wave principles.
XAUUSD - Daily
Resistance and Support:
R1=1720
R2=1746
S1=1667
S2=1625
Waveform: Wave 5 of Wave A is in progression and might be ending at 1667 (61.8% of greater degree wave 1) region. Watch for turn.
Indicators: The MACD is still below the zeroline and RSI is also still sloping downwards.
XAUUSD - 4Hrs
But if you were to look closer on the 4 hr chart and look at the internals of the five wave down Wave A . It is not that simple.
Wave form: In this 4 hour chart, we can see that the 161.8% of subwave 4 (of larger degree Wave A) has just been tested and price might hover around this region. If broken down, we will see more selling to reach 1652 which is 261.8% of subwave 4.
These levels will be level which i will look into and wait for reversal for entry on the long side.
To cut it short, I think this chart is very nicely "created" for Elliottians to analyze. To me most of the extensions and retracements are well inline with Elliott wave principles.
XAUUSD - Daily
Resistance and Support:
R1=1720
R2=1746
S1=1667
S2=1625
Waveform: Wave 5 of Wave A is in progression and might be ending at 1667 (61.8% of greater degree wave 1) region. Watch for turn.
Indicators: The MACD is still below the zeroline and RSI is also still sloping downwards.
XAUUSD - 4Hrs
But if you were to look closer on the 4 hr chart and look at the internals of the five wave down Wave A . It is not that simple.
Wave form: In this 4 hour chart, we can see that the 161.8% of subwave 4 (of larger degree Wave A) has just been tested and price might hover around this region. If broken down, we will see more selling to reach 1652 which is 261.8% of subwave 4.
These levels will be level which i will look into and wait for reversal for entry on the long side.
DJI 04Nov12
Resistance and support
R1= 13300-13360
R2=13560
S1=13060
S2=12820
To me, if you have shorted, look at 13000 to break and go lower.
Waveform: As of friday, the down wave have already captured the 38.6% of the diagonal triangle (wave 5 up since June 2012).
Wave B is currently in progression and i would like to see the target of 13360 to be reached before a U turn to form another 5 wave down Wave C.
Right now i dont think there is a bull or bear obvious winner but I would say that it is a struggle of the two. 13000 is not breached for bears(support for now) and 13360 is not breached for the bulls (resistance). Wait for monday. :)
Saturday, 3 November 2012
EURUSD 04NOV12 onwards
EURUSD 04NOV12 onwards
Today we will cover a bit more on the index and EurUSD and Gold. Let's start by looking at the charts. First, let's look at EURUSD
EURUSD - Daily
I have devise out a systematic wave to write out my blog analysis.So I should start by using this template.
Resistance and Support:
R1= 1.301
R2=1.3116
S1=1.2820
S2=1.2670
Waveform:
On the daily chart, the pair seems to complete its 5 wave up on 17 oct and a obvious truncation had happened, this is inline with the divergence in RSI and MACD.Right now the formation of wave A is in progress and i am looking at
A. 1.2820 as a short term support
B. the support if breaks will head for 1.2742 which is 38.2% of the entire 5 wave up.
C.or 1.2576 which is 161.8% of the wave 5 up.
From this we should decide where is the most probable turning point for this wave down. We can zoom into the 4 hrs chart to take a closer peep.
EURUSD -4 Hr
I will not put those support and resistance lines here.
Waveform:
The waves are simply directly telling us it is a 5 wave down for the Wave A in daily that we saw. Thus, with that the target as you can see from the chart 5-A? will be turning at around 1.2797 region. This coincide with 161.8% of 4-A in this case. Look for bullish reversal candle stick as you can see from the indicator there are some buying force back..slowly.
Just another add on,looking at the USD index 4 hr chart it is forming a 5 wave up with some degree of divergence in the indicators. This adds up to the confidence that there might be a turn in Eurousd in the near term.
Today we will cover a bit more on the index and EurUSD and Gold. Let's start by looking at the charts. First, let's look at EURUSD
EURUSD - Daily
I have devise out a systematic wave to write out my blog analysis.So I should start by using this template.
Resistance and Support:
R1= 1.301
R2=1.3116
S1=1.2820
S2=1.2670
Waveform:
On the daily chart, the pair seems to complete its 5 wave up on 17 oct and a obvious truncation had happened, this is inline with the divergence in RSI and MACD.Right now the formation of wave A is in progress and i am looking at
A. 1.2820 as a short term support
B. the support if breaks will head for 1.2742 which is 38.2% of the entire 5 wave up.
C.or 1.2576 which is 161.8% of the wave 5 up.
From this we should decide where is the most probable turning point for this wave down. We can zoom into the 4 hrs chart to take a closer peep.
EURUSD -4 Hr
I will not put those support and resistance lines here.
Waveform:
The waves are simply directly telling us it is a 5 wave down for the Wave A in daily that we saw. Thus, with that the target as you can see from the chart 5-A? will be turning at around 1.2797 region. This coincide with 161.8% of 4-A in this case. Look for bullish reversal candle stick as you can see from the indicator there are some buying force back..slowly.
Just another add on,looking at the USD index 4 hr chart it is forming a 5 wave up with some degree of divergence in the indicators. This adds up to the confidence that there might be a turn in Eurousd in the near term.
Friday, 2 November 2012
DJI 2 nov 12
Last post I was looking at the 4 hourly chart...now to the daily it is showing me the same thing,same conclusion -Down JOnes :)
1.Look at the trendline it has been broken
2.This five wave up is an diagonal triangle which is ends the wave 5 since last year sept 2011.
3.The break down from the strong support of 13300+.
4. Now look at the chart, the A wave down should be completed at around 13080 ( 38.2%) fibo.Now we shall look at 13290-360 (50% and 61.8%) of leg A for possible retracement of this wave B up.
5. Look at the weakness in the MACD and RSI.
If DJI is to the above mentioned targets of 13290 and 360 today or monday, look for good reversal candle stick on monday or tuesday. You can either zoom in to the hourly or daily chart...depends which one suits your trading style. Happy trading :)
Tuesday, 30 October 2012
DJI
Just a quick view on the DJI, two days of break for Dji and its followers..but what has so far been happening might be worth taking a look. The market might go sleeping again tml. Haha..no one knows what Miss sandy can do to Mr Dji.Maybe sandy had made Mr Dji so "tired" that he don't want to work already LOL :P
Okay, from my analysis of the 4 hourly chart, I have observed a corrective mode of a 5 - 3 -5 wave.Of which as you can see from the chart, both the 5 and 3 were completed. The next 5 wave down is in progress, to me the dji some how stopped at 13000 level which is a strong support + physco support. More over the 1.618 extension of the prior up leg( of 13275 - 13589) is somewhere at 13080. This leg up if fufilled will be a wave 4 and i am expecting it turn at 13296 or 13226 as these are the common retracement level for wave 4. A upmove will be likely as both indicators are pointing towards divergence, which increase the prob of a upward movement soon.Alternatively dji may also head further downwards to 12767 which is its 2.618 extension since 1.618 is already taken out. But if wave 4 ends at 13296 as mentioned before, then target of this downside will be 12900 (if w5=w1) and 12815 (if w5=1.618w4). Also , if wave 4 ends at 13226 target of wave 5 will be 12748 (if w5=1.618w4). Do take note of these levels :) Right now i will watch and see to go short if chances arise.
Sunday, 21 October 2012
GOLD
Gold can be quite a very easy drawn EW on chart and the behavior seems to have very good corrleationship with EW.
Look at the chart and it has formed a strong wave 1 to wave 3 since its up wave from end of july till it reached its peak at 1796 recently. Let's look at it with the chart as shown above. The completed wave 3 is actually forming a wave 4 which I believe is about to have its leg ending at either the 1715 (38.2%) level or the 1693 (50%). Indicators on the 4 hrs is still showing a divergence. Look for any time factor such as fibo/lucas number on the chart and coupled with a bullish candle stick this might prove a good turning point at either 38.2 or 50% level. But note that this wave five might be the last up wave for gold before having some major correction to the gold price movements.
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